Auxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 27). Auxerre had 14.1 days of rest, Monaco 13.2 and had to travel 541 km.
Away travel541 kmRest days14.1 · 13.2Matches / 14d0 · 1
Auxerre25%
Draw26%
Monaco49%
Auxerre25%
Draw26%
Monaco49%
Auxerre25%
Draw26%
Monaco49%
Auxerre19%
Draw24%
Monaco57%
Auxerre25%
Draw26%
Monaco49%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Auxerre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceRomain Lissorgue
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 47
Team strength
Auxerre
Monaco
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
39
AttackIn forecast
45
25
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AuxerreMonaco
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
67%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.67
ShotsContext
10.00
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
44%
On target shareContext
27%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
62%
Box shareContext
72%
6%
ConversionContext
20%
—
OffsidesContext
4.50
10.67
Shots allowedContext
11.67
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.00
BlocksContext
2.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
75%
Save rateContext
63%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
380
PassesContext
510
308
Accurate passesContext
432
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.84
14.33
FoulsContext
10.33
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.00
ShotsContext
11.50
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
38%
On target shareContext
41%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
55%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.80
OffsidesContext
2.71
13.10
Shots allowedContext
10.20
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.00
BlocksContext
2.88
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
75%
Save rateContext
70%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
388
PassesContext
469
319
Accurate passesContext
392
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.95
11.80
FoulsContext
12.00
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Auxerre
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Monaco
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel541 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Auxerre |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 13.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 541 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
40T. De Percin(G)
22F. Oppegård
14G. Mensah
13Telli Siwe
29M. Senaya
7J. Casimir
19D. Namaso
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
10L. Sinayoko
9S. Mara
Monaco
Confirmed XI
16P. Köhn(G)
20K. Ouattara
22M. Salisu
5J. Kehrer
2Vanderson
18T. Minamino
6D. Zakaria
23Aladji Bamba
11M. Akliouche
9F. Balogun
14M. Biereth
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Auxerre
Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Auxerre+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Monaco+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Auxerre · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Monaco · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Auxerre wins0 draws4 Monaco wins
Goals per game1.50 – 3.25
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 1 Feb 2025Monaco4–2Auxerre
- 14 Sep 2024Auxerre0–3Monaco
- 1 Feb 2023Monaco3–2Auxerre
- 28 Dec 2022Auxerre2–3Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Auxerre | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.33 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Auxerre | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.33 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Auxerre | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 9.67 | 10.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 2.66 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Auxerre | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 9.00 | 10.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.10 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Romain Lissorgue France · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.38
Red cards0.36league 0.34
Cards 5+38%league 38%
Fouls26.2league 23.4
Penalties0.38league 0.48
Home wins55%league 69%
Auxerre2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Mar 25A · Reims2–01
- W18 Aug 24H · Nice2–10
Monaco4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D14 Dec 24A · Reims0–03
- W19 May 24H · Nantes4–01
- W22 Oct 23H · Metz2–11
- W1 Dec 21A · Angers3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Auxerre3 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Monaco3 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
7
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
