Auxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Auxerre were slight favourites.
Auxerre were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 16). Absences weigh more on Paris FC. Auxerre had 7 days of rest, Paris FC 8 and had to travel 148 km.
Away travel148 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Auxerre50%
Draw27%
Paris FC24%
Auxerre50%
Draw26%
Paris FC24%
Auxerre49%
Draw27%
Paris FC24%
Auxerre43%
Draw28%
Paris FC30%
Auxerre51%
Draw26%
Paris FC23%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Auxerre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 117
Team strength
Auxerre
Paris FC
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
39
AttackIn forecast
46
25
DefenceIn forecast
38
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AuxerreParis FC
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
45%
Scored inContext
75%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.20
ShotsContext
11.40
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
30%
On target shareContext
30%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
61%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.69
11.30
Shots allowedContext
11.05
4.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.88
BlocksContext
3.39
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.39
71%
Save rateContext
64%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
374
PassesContext
502
303
Accurate passesContext
435
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.35
FoulsContext
11.05
14.05
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
30%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.20
ShotsContext
9.80
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.40
32%
On target shareContext
25%
7.13
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
64%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.86
10.30
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.75
BlocksContext
3.11
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
72%
Save rateContext
74%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
383
PassesContext
478
314
Accurate passesContext
407
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.69
13.00
FoulsContext
11.00
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Auxerre
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km990 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris FC
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel148 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Auxerre |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 148 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 990 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
14G. Mensah
92C. Akpa
20S. Diomandé
27L. Sy
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
8N. Ahamada
19D. Namaso
10L. Sinayoko
7J. Casimir
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
19N. Sangui
6Otávio
15T. Kolodziejczak
5M. Mbow
7Alimami Gory
27M. Simon
17Adama Camara
21M. Lopez
10I. Kebbal
36C. Immobile
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Auxerre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris FC
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Auxerre+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Paris FC-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Auxerre · Home
1.00points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.20
Paris FC · Away
1.10points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-5
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Auxerre | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Lens | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Lille | L 3–4 H | L 2–4 A |
| Metz | W 3–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Lyon | D 0–0 H | D 3–3 H |
| Angers | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Marseille | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 HL 2–5 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–3 A | L 2–3 H |
| LE Havre | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Rennes | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Monaco | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Nantes | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Nice | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Lorient | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 12 of 57 · 0.63 per game | 20 of 57 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Auxerre wins1 draws0 Paris FC wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 29 Nov 2025Paris FC1–1Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Auxerre | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.15 | 3.00 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 55% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 65% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 55% | 25% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Auxerre | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.30 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Auxerre | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 8.90 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 10/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 7/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 6/20 | 25% 5/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.65 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 5.05 | 3.55 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 14/20 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 9/20 | 30% 6/20 | |
| Auxerre | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 8.30 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.30 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 117 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.64
Red cards0.26league 0.31
Cards 5+44%league 36%
Fouls22.3league 24.2
Penalties0.32league 0.42
Home wins53%league 49%
Auxerre3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D29 Nov 25A · Paris FC1–11
- L4 Oct 25H · Lens1–24
- W24 Nov 24H · Angers1–04
Paris FC3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D29 Nov 25H · Auxerre1–12
- L21 Sep 25H · Strasbourg2–31
- L17 Aug 25A · Angers0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Auxerre20 games · scored 14 · conceded 29
1
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
9
76-90
Paris FC20 games · scored 26 · conceded 34
4
3
0-15
4
7
16-30
3
6
31-45
4
7
46-60
2
3
61-75
9
8
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
