Auxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 26). Absences weigh more on Auxerre. Auxerre had 7.8 days of rest, Toulouse 7.1 and had to travel 495 km.
Away travel495 kmRest days7.8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Auxerre34%
Draw28%
Toulouse38%
Auxerre36%
Draw27%
Toulouse37%
Auxerre36%
Draw28%
Toulouse36%
Auxerre28%
Draw27%
Toulouse45%
Auxerre34%
Draw27%
Toulouse39%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Auxerre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 53
Team strength
Auxerre
Toulouse
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
39
AttackIn forecast
45
25
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AuxerreToulouse
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
75%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.25
ShotsContext
10.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
39%
On target shareContext
38%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
57%
Box shareContext
62%
7%
ConversionContext
18%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.25
Shots allowedContext
15.50
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
3.33
BlocksContext
5.75
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
67%
Save rateContext
53%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
355
PassesContext
311
282
Accurate passesContext
247
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.75
FoulsContext
11.00
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.25
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.80
ShotsContext
10.70
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
38%
On target shareContext
44%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
53%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.60
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.78
BlocksContext
4.67
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
70%
Save rateContext
59%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
379
PassesContext
356
310
Accurate passesContext
289
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.50
FoulsContext
11.30
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Auxerre
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Toulouse
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel495 km1,581 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Auxerre |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 495 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,581 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
22F. Oppegård
14G. Mensah
4F. Sierralta
13Telli Siwe
29M. Senaya
19D. Namaso
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
10L. Sinayoko
9S. Mara
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
3M. McKenzie
24D. Methalie
17A. Francis
23C. Cásseres
15A. Dønnum
10G. Gboho
9F. Magri
31N. Edjouma
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Auxerre
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Toulouse
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Auxerre-1.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Toulouse+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Auxerre · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Toulouse · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Auxerre | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Nice | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Auxerre wins2 draws2 Toulouse wins
Goals per game0.75 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 9 Feb 2025Auxerre2–2Toulouse
- 1 Dec 2024Toulouse2–0Auxerre
- 27 May 2023Toulouse1–1Auxerre
- 11 Jan 2023Auxerre0–5Toulouse
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Auxerre | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 3.75 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Auxerre | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 3.75 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Auxerre | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 7.75 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 12.25 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 5.75 | 3.25 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Auxerre | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 9.77 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.00 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.19league 3.54
Red cards0.26league 0.37
Cards 5+25%league 37%
Fouls25.9league 23.7
Penalties0.30league 0.51
Home wins38%league 66%
Auxerre7 with this referee
Record2-3-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 0.9
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds1
- D10 May 25H · Nantes1–13
- W30 Mar 25H · Montpellier1–03
- D24 Jan 25H · Saint Etienne1–12
- W8 Nov 24A · Marseille3–12
- L1 Sep 24A · LE Havre1–35
Toulouse6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L20 Apr 25A · Reims0–11
- D7 Mar 25H · Monaco1–11
- L3 May 24H · Montpellier1–23
- L5 Nov 23H · LE Havre1–22
- W23 Apr 23A · Lorient1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Auxerre4 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Toulouse4 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
3
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
7
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
