AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Guimaraes were slight favourites.
Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Guimaraes. AVS had 8 days of rest, Guimaraes 7.9 and had to travel.
Rest days8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
AVS22%
Draw28%
Guimaraes50%
AVS24%
Draw26%
Guimaraes50%
AVS22%
Draw28%
Guimaraes50%
AVS17%
Draw26%
Guimaraes57%
AVS22%
Draw27%
Guimaraes51%
Over 2.5 40%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalVasilica Iancu
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 8
Team strength
AVS
Guimaraes
11
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
17
AttackIn forecast
28
21
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGuimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSGuimaraes
0.64
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
2.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
39%
Scored inContext
64%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
9.86
ShotsContext
13.07
2.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
26%
On target shareContext
30%
5.41
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
55%
Box shareContext
57%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.17
14.39
Shots allowedContext
10.82
5.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
3.52
BlocksContext
3.05
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
61%
Save rateContext
68%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
304
PassesContext
376
226
Accurate passesContext
310
74%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.58
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.50
FoulsContext
14.64
10.96
Fouls sufferedContext
15.11
2.04
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
30%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.30
ShotsContext
13.50
2.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
20%
On target shareContext
34%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
51%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.80
Shots allowedContext
9.10
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.11
BlocksContext
2.71
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
67%
Save rateContext
57%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
278
PassesContext
403
196
Accurate passesContext
335
70%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.70
FoulsContext
15.40
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Guimaraes
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
Guimaraes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Apr | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
12Leonardo Rivas
3Paulo Vitor
42C. Devenish
97Mateus Pivô
8Pedro Lima
70Roni
23Gustavo Mendonça
25A. Green
7Tómané
11B. Akinsola
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
27Charles(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
28Thiago Balieiro
4Óscar Rivas
66T. Strata
20Samu
16Beni
30Gonçalo Nogueira
19O. Camara
11Gustavo Silva
88M. Nogueira
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
0.50points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-9
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.71
Guimaraes · Away
0.77points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-9
- Scored
- 0.77
- Conceded
- 1.85
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | AVS | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Tondela | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | W 5–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Alverca | D 0–0 AL 1–3 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Estrela | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Benfica | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Estoril | W 3–0 HL 1–3 A | L 2–4 AW 3–2 H |
| Famalicao | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 HD 2–2 A | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Casa Pia | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Arouca | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Nacional | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–6 A | L 1–4 H |
| Rio Ave | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 11 of 81 · 0.41 per game | 32 of 81 · 1.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 AVS wins0 draws2 Guimaraes wins
Goals per game0.33 – 2.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 28 Nov 2025Guimaraes4–0AVS
- 1 Feb 2025Guimaraes2–0AVS
- 25 Aug 2024AVS1–0Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.64 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.18 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.82 | 2.71 | 2.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 50% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 43% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 61% | 36% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| AVS | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.92 | 4.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.71 | 3.35 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 7.81 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 16/24 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 11/24 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 11/24 | 19% 5/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.21 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.71 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.07 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 15/28 | 68% 19/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 13/28 | 64% 18/28 | |
| AVS | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.22 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 10.55 | 8.13 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.00 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Vasilica Iancu Portugal · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.75league 4.82
Red cards0.25league 0.25
Cards 5+13%league 57%
Fouls24.1league 26.9
Penalties0.38league 0.43
Home wins63%league 41%
AVS1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Dec 25A · Sporting CP0–62
GuimaraesNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS28 games · scored 18 · conceded 61
1
10
0-15
1
8
16-30
4
11
31-45
3
12
46-60
3
12
61-75
6
8
76-90
Guimaraes28 games · scored 34 · conceded 42
2
6
0-15
7
5
16-30
7
8
31-45
6
8
46-60
8
7
61-75
4
8
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
6
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
