AZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were clear favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 22). AZ Alkmaar had ? days of rest, Groningen ? and had to travel 138 km.
Away travel138 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
AZ Alkmaar63%
Draw21%
Groningen16%
AZ Alkmaar62%
Draw22%
Groningen16%
AZ Alkmaar63%
Draw21%
Groningen16%
AZ Alkmaar56%
Draw24%
Groningen21%
AZ Alkmaar62%
Draw22%
Groningen16%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alkmaar)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 65
Team strength
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
52
AttackIn forecast
41
49
DefenceIn forecast
21
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGroningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AZ AlkmaarGroningen
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
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—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
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—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.30
ShotsContext
10.90
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
42%
On target shareContext
37%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
71%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.20
9.80
Shots allowedContext
10.90
3.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.20
BlocksContext
2.10
1.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
55%
Save rateContext
56%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
462
PassesContext
419
388
Accurate passesContext
337
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.40
FoulsContext
10.20
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AZ Alkmaar
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Groningen
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel138 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AZ Alkmaar |
Groningen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 138 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
41J. Zoet(G)
34M. de Wit
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
30D. Kasius
10S. Mijnans
8J. Clasie
26K. Smit
27Ro-Zangelo Daal
9T. Parrott
7E. Poku
Groningen
Confirmed XI
21H. Jurjus(G)
2W. Prins
43M. Peersman
3T. Blokzijl
5M. Rente
6S. Resink
8T. de Jonge
17D. van der Werff
26T. van Bergen
10Y. Taha
9B. Willumsson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AZ Alkmaar
Absences are shown before kick-off
Groningen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AZ Alkmaar+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Groningen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AZ Alkmaar · Home
No home games yet this season.
Groningen · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 AZ Alkmaar wins1 draws0 Groningen wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 50%
- 11 May 2025AZ Alkmaar3–0Groningen
- 25 Aug 2024Groningen0–0AZ Alkmaar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AZ Alkmaar | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 53% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| AZ Alkmaar | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 53% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AZ Alkmaar | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 3.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| AZ Alkmaar | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 11.70 | 7.10 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 65 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 2.83
Red cards0.12league 0.17
Cards 5+43%league 33%
Fouls23.2league 21.0
Penalties0.29league 0.17
Home wins46%league 67%
AZ Alkmaar3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Apr 25A · Heracles0–11
- L13 Jan 24A · Twente1–22
- W1 Oct 23H · Fortuna Sittard4–01
Groningen3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W3 May 25H · Waalwijk6–10
- L18 Jan 25A · GO Ahead Eagles1–21
- L20 Oct 24H · Utrecht0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AZ AlkmaarGroningenAZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
5
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 20
2
4
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
3
31-45
7
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
