AZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
AZ Alkmaar
6th · 45 pts · 29 played
LLWLW
First leg1–3
3–0Full time
Heerenveen
8th · 44 pts · 29 played
WWWDW
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar had 7.9 days of rest, Heerenveen 7.1 and had to travel 87 km.
Away travel87 kmRest days7.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
AZ Alkmaar56%
Draw22%
Heerenveen22%
AZ Alkmaar50%
Draw26%
Heerenveen25%
AZ Alkmaar57%
Draw22%
Heerenveen21%
AZ Alkmaar48%
Draw24%
Heerenveen28%
AZ Alkmaar55%
Draw23%
Heerenveen22%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alkmaar)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 49
Team strength
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
52
AttackIn forecast
36
49
DefenceIn forecast
40
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
1.69
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
90%
Scored inContext
83%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.03
ShotsContext
14.72
5.72
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.68
38%
On target shareContext
37%
9.93
Shots in the boxContext
9.71
65%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.79
OffsidesContext
1.79
12.21
Shots allowedContext
12.28
4.41
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.50
BlocksContext
3.26
3.04
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.31
68%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
444
PassesContext
431
365
Accurate passesContext
346
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.00
FoulsContext
10.86
11.28
Fouls sufferedContext
9.72
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
1.41
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.69
70%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.10
ShotsContext
13.60
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.22
38%
On target shareContext
41%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
64%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.00
10.10
Shots allowedContext
16.70
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
3.00
BlocksContext
4.56
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.60
65%
Save rateContext
74%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
433
PassesContext
426
356
Accurate passesContext
344
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.10
FoulsContext
9.80
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
7.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AZ Alkmaar
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heerenveen
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel87 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AZ Alkmaar |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 87 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 11.1 | 13.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
34M. de Wit
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
22Elijah Dijkstra
26K. Smit
8J. Clasie
27Ro-Zangelo Daal
10S. Mijnans
17I. Jensen
9T. Parrott
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
16M. Linday
6J. van Overeem
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
18L. Nordås
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heerenveen
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AZ Alkmaar-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Heerenveen+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
AZ Alkmaar · Home
1.86points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-2
- Scored
- 2.21
- Conceded
- 1.50
Heerenveen · Away
1.29points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-6
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–0 HL 3–4 A | L 0–2 A |
| Groningen | L 0–3 AW 4–1 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Heracles | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A | W 4–1 HW 3–0 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 AL 1–5 H | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Utrecht | L 0–2 AW 4–1 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Ajax | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Telstar | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | L 1–3 AD 2–2 H | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A |
| FC Volendam | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Twente | L 0–1 A | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H |
| Feyenoord | D 3–3 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| NAC Breda | W 1–0 A | D 3–3 H |
| Points | 45 of 84 · 1.61 per game | 41 of 84 · 1.46 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 AZ Alkmaar wins1 draws2 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game3.20 – 1.80
Over 2.5100%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 23 Nov 2025Heerenveen3–1AZ Alkmaar
- 2 Mar 2025Heerenveen3–1AZ Alkmaar
- 14 Sep 2024AZ Alkmaar9–1Heerenveen
- 28 Jan 2024Heerenveen2–2AZ Alkmaar
- 21 Oct 2023AZ Alkmaar3–0Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.69 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 3.24 | 3.45 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 97% | |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 76% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 72% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 17% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.90 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.66 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.31 | 4.79 | |
| Match total | 9.97 | 10.29 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 22/29 | 75% 21/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 12/29 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 9/29 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.59 | 1.41 | |
| Match total | 3.59 | 2.89 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 13/29 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 7/29 | 17% 5/29 | |
| AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.00 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.40 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.53league 3.18
Red cards0.12league 0.17
Cards 5+22%league 26%
Fouls19.5league 21.3
Penalties0.22league 0.23
Home wins57%league 45%
AZ Alkmaar3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.0.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- L21 Dec 25A · Fortuna Sittard3–40
- W2 Feb 25A · Willem II2–00
- W8 Dec 24H · Ajax2–11
Heerenveen4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D9 Aug 25H · FC Volendam1–11
- L19 Oct 24A · NEC Nijmegen0–33
- D7 Oct 23H · NEC Nijmegen1–11
- W12 Aug 23H · Waalwijk3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AZ Alkmaar29 games · scored 49 · conceded 45
9
9
0-15
6
4
16-30
11
10
31-45
5
5
46-60
6
5
61-75
12
12
76-90
Heerenveen29 games · scored 53 · conceded 47
2
4
0-15
7
11
16-30
14
6
31-45
10
9
46-60
9
6
61-75
11
11
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
6
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 17
1
0-15
4
5
16-30
6
1
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
