AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen – 31 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Jan 31 · 15:30 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar 5th · 32 pts · 20 played LWLDW

First leg1–2 1–3Full time

NEC Nijmegen 4th · 35 pts · 19 played WDDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar had 6.2 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 6.9 and had to travel 116 km.

Away travel116 kmRest days6.2 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 2

AZ Alkmaar48%

Draw25%

NEC Nijmegen27%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.20

AZ Alkmaar46%

Draw27%

NEC Nijmegen28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16

AZ Alkmaar47%

Draw25%

NEC Nijmegen27%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.22

AZ Alkmaar40%

Draw26%

NEC Nijmegen34%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.35

AZ Alkmaar47%

Draw26%

NEC Nijmegen27%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.13

Over 2.5 55% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alkmaar)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 90

Team strength

AZ Alkmaar

NEC Nijmegen

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

52 AttackIn forecast 37

49 DefenceIn forecast 33

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AZ Alkmaar

NEC Nijmegen

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.58

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.74

1.78 xGVia Att/Def 1.79

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.79

95% Scored inContext 95%

25% Clean sheetsContext 16%

15.85 ShotsContext 15.37

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.63

37% On target shareContext 43%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.89

65% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 17%

1.58 OffsidesContext 2.50

12.00 Shots allowedContext 11.68

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.21

3.42 BlocksContext 2.42

3.16 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.61

69% Save rateContext 68%

54% PossessionIn forecast 56%

457 PassesContext 416

380 Accurate passesContext 332

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.95

10.40 FoulsContext 11.53

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.47

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.74

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 20 and 19 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.73

0.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

-0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.67

80% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

16.10 ShotsContext 15.00

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30

35% On target shareContext 42%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.90

65% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 16%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.33

8.20 Shots allowedContext 12.70

2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

2.20 BlocksContext 2.80

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

69% Save rateContext 71%

58% PossessionIn forecast 55%

485 PassesContext 399

408 Accurate passesContext 315

84% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.89

10.30 FoulsContext 11.00

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AZ Alkmaar

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km224 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

NEC Nijmegen

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel116 km159 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AZ Alkmaar	NEC Nijmegen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Jan	6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	116 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	224 km	159 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-3-3

41J. Zoet(G)

34M. de Wit 4M. Dekker 3W. Goes 5Alexandre Penetra

33M. Šín 6P. Koopmeiners 20Kasper Boogaard

27Ro-Zangelo Daal 9T. Parrott 17I. Jensen

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

NEC Nijmegen Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1G. Crettaz(G)

24D. Fonville 4A. Kaplan 14E. Dasa

11B. Önal 23K. Sano 6D. Nejašmić 25S. Ouaissa

20N. Lebreton 10T. Chery

30B. Linssen

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AZ Alkmaar Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

NEC Nijmegen Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AZ Alkmaar+0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
NEC Nijmegen-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

AZ Alkmaar · Home 1.78points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-1
Scored: 2.22
Conceded: 1.78

NEC Nijmegen · Away 1.50points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 4-3-3
Scored: 2.40
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	AZ Alkmaar	NEC Nijmegen
Telstar	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	D 2–2 A
Excelsior	D 1–1 H	W 5–0 H
PEC Zwolle	L 1–3 AD 2–2 H	W 2–1 HD 2–2 A
FC Volendam	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A	W 3–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 3–4 A	L 2–3 A
GO Ahead Eagles	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 A
Twente	L 0–1 A	D 3–3 H
Heerenveen	L 1–3 A	L 2–3 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–5 H	L 3–5 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 1–0 A	W 3–1 H
Utrecht	W 4–1 H	L 0–1 A
Ajax	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 H
Feyenoord	D 3–3 H	W 4–2 A
Heracles	W 2–1 A	W 4–1 A
NAC Breda	W 1–0 A	W 4–3 AW 3–0 H
Groningen	W 4–1 H	W 2–0 H
Points	32 of 57 · 1.68 per game	32 of 54 · 1.78 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 AZ Alkmaar wins1 draws2 NEC Nijmegen wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.75 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

28 Sep 2025NEC Nijmegen2–1AZ Alkmaar
29 Mar 2025NEC Nijmegen3–3AZ Alkmaar
17 Aug 2024AZ Alkmaar1–0NEC Nijmegen
6 Dec 2023AZ Alkmaar1–2NEC Nijmegen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AZ Alkmaar	NEC Nijmegen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.75	2.58
Conceded per game	1.60	1.74
Match goals	3.35	4.32	2.88
Over 1.5	75%	95%
Over 2.5	65%	84%	55%
Over 3.5	50%	68%
Both teams scored	70%	79%	57%
Clean sheets	25%	16%
Failed to score	5%	5%
Games	20	19

	AZ Alkmaar	NEC Nijmegen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	2.40
Conceded per game	1.90	1.60
Match goals	3.10	4.00	2.88
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	55%
Over 3.5	50%	70%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	57%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AZ Alkmaar	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.95	5.47
Corners conceded	4.15	4.32
Match total	10.10	9.79	10.26
Over 8.5	75% 15/20	63% 12/19
Over 9.5	45% 9/20	53% 10/19
Over 10.5	30% 6/20	47% 9/19
Cards
Cards	2.35	1.89
Opponent cards	1.55	2.32
Match total	3.90	4.21	3.58
Over 3.5	50% 10/20	53% 10/19
Over 4.5	35% 7/20	53% 10/19

	AZ Alkmaar	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	5.70
Corners conceded	4.00	4.50
Match total	10.20	10.20	10.26
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.90
Opponent cards	1.90	1.60
Match total	4.00	3.50	3.58
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 90 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.03league 3.37

Red cards0.11league 0.20

Cards 5+42%league 31%

Fouls23.3league 21.7

Penalties0.32league 0.27

Home wins48%league 44%

AZ Alkmaar6 with this referee

Record3-0-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2 Pens for · against2 · 0

L9 Nov 25H · PSV Eindhoven1–52
W5 Oct 25H · Telstar2–13
W10 Aug 25H · Groningen4–12
L13 Apr 25A · Heracles0–11
L13 Jan 24A · Twente1–22

NEC Nijmegen4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against1 · 1

L2 Nov 25A · Utrecht0–12
W11 May 25A · Ajax3–04
D1 Feb 25H · PSV Eindhoven3–31
D1 Sep 23A · Sparta Rotterdam1–15

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.