Barcelona vs Girona – 18 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 18 · 15:15 Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona

Barcelona 2nd · 19 pts · 8 played WWWWL

2–1Full time

Girona 18th · 6 pts · 8 played DLDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Barcelona were clear favourites.

Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 38). Barcelona usually keep the ball (68% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Barcelona had 13 days of rest, Girona 14 and had to travel 86 km.

Away travel86 kmRest days13 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1

Barcelona80%

Draw13%

Girona6%

Expected goals 2.71 – 0.64

Barcelona80%

Draw14%

Girona6%

Expected goals 2.71 – 0.66

Barcelona81%

Draw13%

Girona6%

Expected goals 2.72 – 0.64

Barcelona75%

Draw17%

Girona9%

Expected goals 2.42 – 0.72

Barcelona80%

Draw14%

Girona6%

Expected goals 2.70 – 0.67

Over 2.5 65% Both score 45% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Barcelona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.43
Matches 35

Team strength

Barcelona

Girona

89 L90 StrengthIn forecast 38

93 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

97 AttackIn forecast 49

92 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Barcelona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Barcelona

Girona

2.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.13

2.19 xGVia Att/Def 0.74

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.95

+0.56 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

100% Scored inContext 50%

38% Clean sheetsContext 13%

19.88 ShotsContext 8.63

8.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.38

40% On target shareContext 39%

12.38 Shots in the boxContext 5.38

63% Box shareContext 63%

14% ConversionContext 7%

2.67 OffsidesContext 3.00

7.00 Shots allowedContext 16.88

3.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.38

2.17 BlocksContext 3.88

2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

65% Save rateContext 65%

71% PossessionIn forecast 46%

630 PassesContext 400

565 Accurate passesContext 334

90% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.07 Team ratingContext 6.65

9.00 FoulsContext 9.63

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.13

1.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.25

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40

2.01 xGVia Att/Def 0.81

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.05

+0.49 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

100% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

19.00 ShotsContext 8.00

7.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

38% On target shareContext 41%

12.10 Shots in the boxContext 4.90

64% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 9%

2.67 OffsidesContext 3.33

7.90 Shots allowedContext 16.90

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.30

2.38 BlocksContext 4.00

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

68% Save rateContext 64%

68% PossessionIn forecast 46%

599 PassesContext 402

534 Accurate passesContext 337

89% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.65

9.40 FoulsContext 9.90

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Barcelona

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,656 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Girona

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel86 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Barcelona	Girona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct	14La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	86 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,656 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Barcelona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25W. Szczęsny(G)

3Alejandro Balde 24Eric García 5Pau Cubarsí 23J. Koundé

8Pedri 17Marc Casadó

14M. Rashford 21F. de Jong 10Lamine Yamal

29Toni Fernández

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Girona Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

24Álex Moreno 17D. Blind 12Vitor Reis 2Hugo Rincón

3Joel Roca 20A. Witsel 4Arnau Martínez 21Bryan Gil

19V. Vanat 8Portu

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Barcelona Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Girona Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Barcelona-0.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Girona+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Barcelona · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 3.67
Conceded: 0.33

Girona · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Barcelona	Girona
Sevilla	L 1–4 A	L 0–2 H
Valencia	W 6–0 H	W 2–1 H
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	L 1–3 H
Levante	W 3–2 A	L 0–4 H
Points	7 of 12 · 1.75 per game	3 of 12 · 0.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Barcelona wins1 draws2 Girona wins

Goals per game2.17 – 1.67 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 17%

30 Mar 2025Barcelona4–1Girona
15 Sep 2024Girona1–4Barcelona
4 May 2024Girona4–2Barcelona
10 Dec 2023Barcelona2–4Girona
10 Apr 2023Barcelona0–0Girona
28 Jan 2023Girona0–1Barcelona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Barcelona	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	2.75	0.63
Conceded per game	1.13	2.13
Match goals	3.88	2.75	3.36
Over 1.5	100%	88%
Over 2.5	88%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	50%	38%
Both teams scored	63%	50%	45%
Clean sheets	38%	13%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	8	8

	Barcelona	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	2.75	0.63
Conceded per game	1.13	2.13
Match goals	3.88	2.75	3.36
Over 1.5	100%	88%
Over 2.5	88%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	50%	38%
Both teams scored	63%	50%	45%
Clean sheets	38%	13%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Barcelona	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	6.43	4.29
Corners conceded	4.57	5.57
Match total	11.00	9.86	9.81
Over 8.5	86% 6/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.25	2.25
Opponent cards	3.38	1.00
Match total	4.63	3.25	4.34
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	25% 2/8
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	25% 2/8

	Barcelona	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.89	3.67
Corners conceded	5.22	6.22
Match total	11.11	9.89	9.81
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.10
Opponent cards	3.10	1.00
Match total	4.90	3.10	4.34
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 35 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.49league 4.07

Red cards0.26league 0.28

Cards 5+51%league 45%

Fouls25.4league 24.5

Penalties0.43league 0.32

Home wins34%league 48%

Barcelona3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W19 May 24H · Rayo Vallecano3–04
W21 Jan 24A · Real Betis4–22
L28 Oct 23H · Real Madrid1–22

Girona4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 0

L25 May 25H · Atletico Madrid0–40
W31 Mar 24H · Real Betis3–23
D3 Feb 24H · Real Sociedad0–02
W26 Aug 23A · Sevilla2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.