Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Barcelona. Barcelona had 3.2 days of rest, Racing Santander 4.3 and had to travel 541 km. Weather to note: heavy rain, thunderstorm.
Away travel541 kmRest days3.2 · 4.3Matches / 14d3 · 2
Barcelona90%
Draw6%
Racing Santander3%
Barcelona80%
Draw13%
Racing Santander6%
Barcelona90%
Draw6%
Racing Santander3%
Barcelona86%
Draw9%
Racing Santander5%
Barcelona89%
Draw8%
Racing Santander4%
Over 2.5 85%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
Heavy rain Thunderstorm
22°CThunderstorm
- Precipitation 5.1 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 89%
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 47
Team strength
Barcelona
Racing Santander
92
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
41
97
AttackIn forecast
42
92
DefenceIn forecast
22
95
Form indexContext
53
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRacing Santander
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaRacing Santander
4.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
3.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
100%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
19.20
ShotsContext
11.20
8.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
44%
On target shareContext
36%
14.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
79%
Box shareContext
67%
22%
ConversionContext
16%
4.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
7.80
Shots allowedContext
14.80
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.60
2.50
BlocksContext
3.60
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.75
69%
Save rateContext
72%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
675
PassesContext
419
609
Accurate passesContext
338
90%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.44
Team ratingContext
6.84
9.20
FoulsContext
15.20
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
15.80
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
3.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.70
Goals minus xGContext
+0.68
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.20
ShotsContext
14.70
7.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
43%
On target shareContext
44%
11.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
74%
Box shareContext
68%
20%
ConversionContext
16%
3.11
OffsidesContext
1.89
8.60
Shots allowedContext
13.30
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.43
BlocksContext
3.70
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
67%
Save rateContext
69%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
676
PassesContext
428
614
Accurate passesContext
352
91%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.21
Team ratingContext
7.00
9.60
FoulsContext
14.70
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
WWWWW
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,210 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 95 · 15 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected
Racing Santander
DLWLW
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel541 km678 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 53 · 7 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Racing Santander |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2La Liga 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 4.3La Liga 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 541 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,210 km | 678 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
1Joan García(G)
2João Cancelo
18Gerard Martín
15A. Christensen
24Eric García
8Pedri
16Rodri
20Dani Olmo
14K. Adeyemi
11Raphinha
10Lamine Yamal
Racing Santander
Confirmed XI
13Julen Agirrezabala(G)
3Aarón Martín
16F. González
22Pedro Felipe
4Manu Hernando
18M. Prati
6Íñigo Sainz-Maza
14M. Gueye
20Sergio Canales
9J. Arana Gómez
12Asier Villalibre
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Absences are shown before kick-off
Racing Santander
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Racing Santander+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Racing Santander · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Barcelona | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | W 5–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Elche | W 5–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Racing Santander | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 3.60 | 4.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 85% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Barcelona | Racing Santander | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 3.60 | 4.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 85% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Racing Santander | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 8.60 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 14.00 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 2.20 | 5.20 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Barcelona | Racing Santander | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 11.90 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 4.60 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.19league 4.18
Red cards0.28league 0.25
Cards 5+45%league 48%
Fouls24.8league 24.5
Penalties0.19league 0.30
Home wins40%league 45%
Barcelona6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W22 Apr 26H · Celta Vigo1–01
- W7 Mar 26A · Athletic Club1–01
- W16 Aug 25A · Mallorca3–01
- L18 May 25H · Villarreal2–32
- L27 Jan 24H · Villarreal3–53
Racing SantanderNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona5 games · scored 21 · conceded 4
3
1
0-15
4
16-30
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
Racing Santander5 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 32 · conceded 10
5
1
0-15
7
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
6
3
61-75
8
4
76-90
Racing Santander10 games · scored 24 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
