Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Barcelona
1st · 70 pts · 28 played
LWWWW
1–0Full time
Rayo Vallecano
14th · 32 pts · 28 played
DDWDD
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Barcelona. Barcelona had 6.9 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 5.7 and had to travel 504 km.
Away travel504 kmRest days6.9 · 5.7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Barcelona81%
Draw12%
Rayo Vallecano6%
Barcelona77%
Draw15%
Rayo Vallecano8%
Barcelona81%
Draw12%
Rayo Vallecano6%
Barcelona75%
Draw16%
Rayo Vallecano10%
Barcelona80%
Draw13%
Rayo Vallecano7%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 17
Team strength
BarcelonaRayo Vallecano
92
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
97
AttackIn forecast
61
92
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaRayo Vallecano
2.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
2.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
100%
Scored inContext
64%
39%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
19.57
ShotsContext
13.00
7.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.39
36%
On target shareContext
34%
12.54
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
65%
Box shareContext
55%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.54
OffsidesContext
2.33
9.11
Shots allowedContext
11.68
3.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.96
2.36
BlocksContext
3.64
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.77
72%
Save rateContext
67%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
647
PassesContext
421
580
Accurate passesContext
348
90%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.50
FoulsContext
12.54
11.68
Fouls sufferedContext
11.29
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
3.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
100%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
19.20
ShotsContext
12.80
7.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
38%
On target shareContext
38%
13.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
71%
Box shareContext
53%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.60
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.00
BlocksContext
3.70
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
73%
Save rateContext
68%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
641
PassesContext
377
575
Accurate passesContext
301
90%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.15
Team ratingContext
6.81
8.60
FoulsContext
11.80
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest5.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel504 km781 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 5.7La Liga 2025-2026, 16 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 504 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 781 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.3 | 12.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
2João Cancelo
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
4R. Araujo
8Pedri
22Marc Bernal
11Raphinha
16Fermín López
10Lamine Yamal
9R. Lewandowski
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
6P. Ciss
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
23Óscar Valentín
4Pedro Díaz
21Fran Pérez
15Gerard Gumbau
14Carlos Martín
7Isi Palazón
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Rayo Vallecano+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 14-0-0
- Scored
- 3.29
- Conceded
- 0.57
Rayo Vallecano · Away
0.86points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-8
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Barcelona | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | W 5–2 HL 1–4 A | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Villarreal | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| Levante | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A | W 3–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Real Betis | W 5–3 A | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Alaves | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 4–2 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Getafe | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Valencia | W 6–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 69 of 81 · 2.56 per game | 31 of 81 · 1.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Barcelona wins3 draws3 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.78
Over 2.533%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 31 Aug 2025Rayo Vallecano1–1Barcelona
- 17 Feb 2025Barcelona1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 27 Aug 2024Rayo Vallecano1–2Barcelona
- 19 May 2024Barcelona3–0Rayo Vallecano
- 25 Nov 2023Rayo Vallecano1–1Barcelona
- 26 Apr 2023Rayo Vallecano2–1Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.75 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 3.75 | 2.21 | 3.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 82% | 39% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 46% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 39% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 36% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Barcelona | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.70 | 3.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 5.68 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.96 | |
| Match total | 11.22 | 10.64 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 22/27 | 75% 21/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 17/27 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 15/27 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.32 | 2.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.39 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 5.04 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 12/28 | 75% 21/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 9/28 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Barcelona | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.90 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.80 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.80 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.06league 4.21
Red cards0.18league 0.28
Cards 5+47%league 47%
Fouls25.1league 24.5
Penalties0.35league 0.37
Home wins76%league 48%
Barcelona1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Dec 25H · Osasuna2–00
Rayo Vallecano1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Dec 25A · Elche0–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona28 games · scored 77 · conceded 28
14
5
0-15
7
4
16-30
14
9
31-45
13
1
46-60
14
3
61-75
15
6
76-90
Rayo Vallecano28 games · scored 28 · conceded 34
2
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
10
4
31-45
4
6
46-60
4
5
61-75
5
10
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 32 · conceded 10
4
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
7
1
46-60
7
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
