Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Real Madrid. Barcelona had 8 days of rest, Real Madrid 7 and had to travel 504 km.
Away travel504 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Barcelona54%
Draw24%
Real Madrid23%
Barcelona50%
Draw26%
Real Madrid24%
Barcelona52%
Draw24%
Real Madrid24%
Barcelona46%
Draw25%
Real Madrid29%
Barcelona53%
Draw24%
Real Madrid23%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 136
Team strength
Barcelona
Real Madrid
92
L90 StrengthIn forecast
88
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
97
AttackIn forecast
89
92
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaReal Madrid
2.62
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.06
0.91
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
2.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.96
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
100%
Scored inContext
91%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
18.79
ShotsContext
17.56
6.82
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.76
36%
On target shareContext
39%
12.21
Shots in the boxContext
11.09
66%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.62
OffsidesContext
2.33
8.71
Shots allowedContext
10.41
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
2.23
BlocksContext
3.35
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
74%
Save rateContext
71%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
643
PassesContext
581
578
Accurate passesContext
521
90%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
7.11
Team ratingContext
7.12
9.65
FoulsContext
10.35
11.76
Fouls sufferedContext
13.24
1.41
Yellow cardsContext
1.76
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
90%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.20
ShotsContext
16.30
6.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.20
45%
On target shareContext
44%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
71%
Box shareContext
65%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.50
7.50
Shots allowedContext
15.30
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
1.75
BlocksContext
4.40
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
71%
Save rateContext
73%
66%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
605
PassesContext
518
547
Accurate passesContext
461
90%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.13
Team ratingContext
7.05
9.00
FoulsContext
10.20
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km703 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Madrid
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel504 km995 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 2 May | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 504 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 703 km | 995 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
2João Cancelo
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
24Eric García
8Pedri
6Gavi
16Fermín López
20Dani Olmo
14M. Rashford
7Ferran Torres
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
20Fran García
22A. Rüdiger
17Raúl Asencio
12T. Alexander-Arnold
14A. Tchouaméni
6E. Camavinga
7Vinícius
5J. Bellingham
21Brahim Díaz
16Gonzalo García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona+1.9 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Real Madrid-1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 17-0-0
- Scored
- 3.06
- Conceded
- 0.53
Real Madrid · Away
2.00points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 10-4-3
- Scored
- 1.82
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Barcelona | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Getafe | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 1–0 HW 4–2 A | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Espanyol | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | W 3–2 HL 2–5 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Sevilla | W 5–2 HL 1–4 A | W 2–0 H |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Villarreal | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Levante | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | W 4–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 4–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Real Betis | W 5–3 A | D 1–1 AW 5–1 H |
| Alaves | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Valencia | W 6–0 H | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Points | 88 of 99 · 2.67 per game | 74 of 99 · 2.24 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Barcelona wins0 draws6 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game2.10 – 1.80
Over 2.5100%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 26 Oct 2025Real Madrid2–1Barcelona
- 11 May 2025Barcelona4–3Real Madrid
- 26 Oct 2024Real Madrid0–4Barcelona
- 21 Apr 2024Real Madrid3–2Barcelona
- 28 Oct 2023Barcelona1–2Real Madrid
- 19 Mar 2023Barcelona2–1Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.62 | 2.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.91 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 3.53 | 2.97 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 76% | 59% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 59% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 9% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Barcelona | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.90 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.82 | 6.32 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.27 | 3.87 | |
| Match total | 11.09 | 10.19 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 79% 26/33 | 74% 23/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 21/33 | 61% 19/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 17/33 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.47 | 1.91 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.62 | 2.56 | |
| Match total | 4.09 | 4.47 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 16/34 | 50% 17/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 12/34 | 41% 14/34 | |
| Barcelona | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 11.80 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.60 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 136 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.01league 4.29
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+58%league 47%
Fouls24.8league 24.5
Penalties0.30league 0.36
Home wins43%league 48%
Barcelona17 with this referee
Record10-6-1
Cards · opp.3.2 · 3.7
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds3
- W11 Apr 26H · Espanyol4–13
- W28 Sep 25H · Real Sociedad2–11
- W23 Aug 25A · Levante3–21
- W11 May 25H · Real Madrid4–34
- W9 Feb 25A · Sevilla4–13
Real Madrid13 with this referee
Record7-3-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 3.5
Pens for · against3 · 2
- W4 Jan 26H · Real Betis5–11
- L11 May 25A · Barcelona3–43
- L1 Mar 25A · Real Betis1–24
- W1 Dec 24H · Getafe2–02
- W19 Oct 24A · Celta Vigo2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona34 games · scored 89 · conceded 31
15
5
0-15
9
4
16-30
17
10
31-45
13
2
46-60
15
3
61-75
20
7
76-90
Real Madrid34 games · scored 70 · conceded 31
5
1
0-15
10
3
16-30
14
7
31-45
14
6
46-60
10
6
61-75
17
8
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 26 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
5
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
