Barcelona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Barcelona53.7%fair odds 1.86
Draw23.7%fair odds 4.23
Real Madrid22.7%fair odds 4.41
Expected goals1.87 – 1.15total 3.02
Likeliest score1–111.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Real Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Barcelona ↓ · Real Madrid → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Barcelona goals, columns Real Madrid goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%9.05
- 2–19.8%10.19
- 1–08.6%11.68
- 2–08.5%11.72
- 3–16.1%16.34
- 1–26.0%16.58
- 2–25.6%17.72
- 0–05.4%18.42
- 3–05.3%18.79
- 0–15.0%19.80
Winning margin
14.5%
Barcelona by 3+
fair 6.90
16.6%
Barcelona by 2
fair 6.04
22.6%
Barcelona by 1
fair 4.42
23.7%
Draw
fair 4.23
13.7%
Real Madrid by 1
fair 7.31
6.3%
Real Madrid by 2
fair 15.98
2.7%
Real Madrid by 3+
fair 36.46
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Barcelona goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Real Madrid goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | 53.7% | 52.7% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 23.7% | 24.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Real Madrid win | 22.7% | 23.3% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 57.5% | +0.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.4% | 58.2% | +0.2 pp |
| Expected goals Barcelona | 1.87 | 1.84 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Real Madrid | 1.15 | 1.16 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Barcelona win53.7%1.86
- Draw23.7%4.23
- Real Madrid win22.7%4.41
- Double chance Barcelona or draw77.3%1.29
- Double chance Barcelona or Real Madrid76.3%1.31
- Double chance Real Madrid or draw46.3%2.16
- Draw no bet Barcelona70.3%1.42
- Draw no bet Real Madrid29.7%3.37
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.581.0%1.24
- Over 2.558.2%1.72
- Over 3.535.8%2.80
- Over 4.518.8%5.31
- Under 1.519.0%5.25
- Under 2.541.8%2.39
- Under 3.564.2%1.56
Both teams to score
- Yes58.4%1.71
- No41.6%2.40
- Yes and over 2.547.3%2.11
- Barcelona win and yes27.4%3.65
- Draw and yes18.2%5.48
- Real Madrid win and yes12.7%7.87
Team goals
- Barcelona over 0.584.6%1.18
- Barcelona over 1.555.8%1.79
- Barcelona over 2.528.9%3.47
- Real Madrid over 0.568.3%1.46
- Real Madrid over 1.531.9%3.13
- Real Madrid over 2.511.0%9.10
- Barcelona clean sheet31.7%3.16
- Real Madrid clean sheet15.4%6.50
- Barcelona win to nil26.2%3.81
- Real Madrid win to nil10.0%10.04
Handicap
- Barcelona −1.531.1%3.22
- Barcelona −2.514.5%6.90
- Real Madrid +1.568.9%1.45
- Real Madrid +2.585.5%1.17
- Real Madrid −1.59.0%11.11
- Barcelona +1.591.0%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored348
Favourite won51.7%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.579
Over 2.5 called right57.8%
BTTS called right57.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 72 | 37.9% | 30.6% |
| 40–50% | 139 | 44.5% | 46.0% |
| 50–60% | 68 | 54.7% | 61.8% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 63.9% | 62.9% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 74.5% | 85.2% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 278 of 348 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5764 | 0.5705 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 41.7% |
| Favourite won | 52.9% | 54.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 278 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 348 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.