Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sevilla. Barcelona had 7.8 days of rest, Sevilla 6.9 and had to travel 828 km.
Away travel828 kmRest days7.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Barcelona76%
Draw16%
Sevilla8%
Barcelona79%
Draw14%
Sevilla7%
Barcelona76%
Draw16%
Sevilla8%
Barcelona70%
Draw19%
Sevilla11%
Barcelona75%
Draw16%
Sevilla8%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 40
Team strength
Barcelona
Sevilla
91
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
97
AttackIn forecast
48
92
DefenceIn forecast
57
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaSevilla
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.96
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
2.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
100%
Scored inContext
81%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
19.81
ShotsContext
11.07
7.07
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
36%
On target shareContext
34%
12.63
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
64%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.57
OffsidesContext
3.29
9.11
Shots allowedContext
10.37
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.26
2.38
BlocksContext
3.45
2.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
73%
Save rateContext
69%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
648
PassesContext
417
582
Accurate passesContext
342
90%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.67
FoulsContext
14.67
11.59
Fouls sufferedContext
12.89
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.74
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
2.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
100%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
19.50
ShotsContext
11.80
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
36%
On target shareContext
36%
13.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
70%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.78
9.30
Shots allowedContext
9.80
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.10
BlocksContext
3.11
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
79%
Save rateContext
63%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
648
PassesContext
414
579
Accurate passesContext
341
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.74
9.10
FoulsContext
14.20
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km934 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sevilla
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel828 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 828 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 934 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
2João Cancelo
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
42Xavi Espart
20Dani Olmo
22Marc Bernal
8Pedri
11Raphinha
9R. Lewandowski
19R. Bardghji
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
12G. Suazo
6N. Gudelj
5T. Nianzou
16Juanlu Sánchez
20M. Sow
18L. Agoumé
36Oso
10A. Sánchez
2J. Carmona Navarro
9A. Adams
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sevilla
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Sevilla-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 13-0-0
- Scored
- 3.15
- Conceded
- 0.46
Sevilla · Away
1.15points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-6
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Barcelona | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Villarreal | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Levante | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Girona | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Betis | W 5–3 A | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Alaves | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 4–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Getafe | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Valencia | W 6–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 67 of 78 · 2.58 per game | 28 of 78 · 1.08 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
8 Barcelona wins1 draws1 Sevilla wins
Goals per game2.30 – 0.80
Over 2.560%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 5 Oct 2025Sevilla4–1Barcelona
- 9 Feb 2025Sevilla1–4Barcelona
- 20 Oct 2024Barcelona5–1Sevilla
- 26 May 2024Sevilla1–2Barcelona
- 29 Sep 2023Barcelona1–0Sevilla
- 5 Feb 2023Barcelona3–0Sevilla
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.96 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 3.63 | 2.85 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 81% | 59% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 63% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 19% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Barcelona | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.70 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.15 | 5.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.23 | 4.58 | |
| Match total | 11.38 | 9.66 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 85% 22/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 17/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% 15/26 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.37 | 2.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.44 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 3.81 | 5.08 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 12/27 | 70% 19/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 9/27 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Barcelona | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.40 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 9.00 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 4.70 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.45league 4.21
Red cards0.23league 0.28
Cards 5+45%league 47%
Fouls26.6league 24.5
Penalties0.38league 0.36
Home wins45%league 47%
Barcelona3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W25 Jan 26H · Oviedo3–01
- W3 Feb 24A · Alaves3–12
- W22 Oct 23H · Athletic Club1–03
Sevilla2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.4.5 · 5.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 May 25H · Las Palmas1–06
- W17 Sep 23H · Las Palmas1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona27 games · scored 72 · conceded 26
13
5
0-15
6
4
16-30
13
8
31-45
11
1
46-60
14
3
61-75
15
5
76-90
Sevilla27 games · scored 35 · conceded 42
4
3
0-15
5
5
16-30
5
8
31-45
7
8
46-60
5
6
61-75
9
12
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 27 · conceded 8
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
8
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
