Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin – 5 Sep 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 2 Sat, Sep 5 · 14:30 BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen 14th · 0 pts · 1 played L

4–0Full time

Union Berlin 10th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.

Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Union Berlin. Bayer Leverkusen had 7 days of rest, Union Berlin 7 and had to travel 472 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel472 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Bayer Leverkusen66%

Draw18%

Union Berlin16%

Expected goals 2.32 – 1.04

Bayer Leverkusen66%

Draw20%

Union Berlin14%

Expected goals 2.08 – 0.86

Bayer Leverkusen65%

Draw19%

Union Berlin16%

Expected goals 2.27 – 1.05

Bayer Leverkusen58%

Draw21%

Union Berlin21%

Expected goals 2.07 – 1.17

Bayer Leverkusen65%

Draw19%

Union Berlin16%

Expected goals 2.26 – 1.05

Over 2.5 65% Both score 58% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leverkusen)

21°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 17 km/h
Humidity 52%

RefereeRobin Braun

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.47
Matches 17

Team strength

Bayer Leverkusen

Union Berlin

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 41

79 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

87 AttackIn forecast 42

79 DefenceIn forecast 41

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Union Berlin

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayer Leverkusen

Union Berlin

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

2.00 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.80

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.34

90% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.60 ShotsContext 12.90

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

34% On target shareContext 41%

11.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

67% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 13%

1.57 OffsidesContext 2.57

14.80 Shots allowedContext 13.40

5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.50 BlocksContext 5.14

4.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

66% Save rateContext 63%

60% PossessionIn forecast 45%

539 PassesContext 365

476 Accurate passesContext 273

88% Pass accuracyContext 75%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.80

7.80 FoulsContext 10.50

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 8.30

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen L

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km382 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 38 · 0 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected

L29 AugA · SV Elversberg2–31.9 xPts

Union Berlin D

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel472 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 45 · 1 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected

D29 AugH · Eintracht Frankfurt3–31.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bayer Leverkusen	Union Berlin
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 29 Aug	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 29 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	472 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	382 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Flekken(G)

3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah

6E. Fernández 24Aleix García

30I. Maza 10M. Tillman 9Afonso Moreira

14P. Schick

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Union Berlin Confirmed XI

4-3-1-2

1F. Rønnow(G)

15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 18J. Juranović

9Livan Burcu 6A. Kemlein 20M. Aebischer

8R. Khedira

27M. Ljubičić 29E. Latte Lath

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bayer Leverkusen Absences are shown before kick-off

Union Berlin Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bayer Leverkusen+1.2 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Union Berlin-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home No home games yet this season.

Union Berlin · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 Bayer Leverkusen wins4 draws1 Union Berlin wins

Goals per game1.70 – 0.50 Over 2.540% Both scored30% Clean sheets60% · 30%

21 Feb 2026Union Berlin1–0Bayer Leverkusen
4 Oct 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–0Union Berlin
12 Apr 2025Bayer Leverkusen0–0Union Berlin
30 Nov 2024Union Berlin1–2Bayer Leverkusen
6 Apr 2024Union Berlin0–1Bayer Leverkusen
12 Nov 2023Bayer Leverkusen4–0Union Berlin

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bayer Leverkusen	Union Berlin	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	3.00
Conceded per game	3.00	3.00
Match goals	5.00	6.00	3.37
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	65%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Bayer Leverkusen	Union Berlin	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.70
Conceded per game	1.80	1.90
Match goals	4.00	3.60	3.37
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	80%	65%
Over 3.5	50%	70%
Both teams scored	90%	70%	58%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bayer Leverkusen	Union Berlin	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	5.00
Corners conceded	4.00	2.00
Match total	7.00	7.00	11.20
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	3.00	4.00
Match total	5.00	6.00	3.30
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Bayer Leverkusen	Union Berlin	League
Corners
Corners won	6.67	4.60
Corners conceded	4.22	5.90
Match total	10.89	10.50	11.20
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.40
Opponent cards	2.20	1.50
Match total	3.70	2.90	3.30
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robin Braun 17 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.29league 3.10

Red cards0.24league 0.20

Cards 5+41%league 20%

Fouls22.3league 23.0

Penalties0.47league 0.10

Home wins35%league 80%

Bayer Leverkusen3 with this referee

Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.7 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

D21 Mar 26A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–34
D30 Aug 25A · Werder Bremen3–33
W2 Feb 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–14

Union Berlin1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L31 Jan 26A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.