Bayern München vs Bodo/Glimt – 10 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 10 · 20:00 Fußball Arena München, München

Bayern München

5–0Full time

Bodo/Glimt

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayern München were clear favourites.

Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 59). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Bodo/Glimt. Bayern München had 5.1 days of rest, Bodo/Glimt 16 and had to travel 2,135 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel2,135 kmRest days5.1 · 16Matches / 14d2 · 0

Bayern München81%

Draw11%

Bodo/Glimt7%

Expected goals 3.16 – 0.91

Bayern München78%

Draw14%

Bodo/Glimt8%

Expected goals 2.59 – 0.69

Bayern München80%

Draw12%

Bodo/Glimt8%

Expected goals 3.10 – 0.91

Bayern München75%

Draw15%

Bodo/Glimt11%

Expected goals 2.82 – 1.02

Bayern München79%

Draw13%

Bodo/Glimt8%

Expected goals 2.90 – 0.86

Over 2.5 77% Both score 57% Likeliest score 3–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (München)

16°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 63%

Referee · SloveniaRade Obrenovič

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 26

Team strength

Bayern München

Bodo/Glimt

94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 59

93 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

96 AttackIn forecast 61

90 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayern München

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bodo/Glimt

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayern München

Bodo/Glimt

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

3.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.53

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76

+0.64 Goals minus xGContext +0.97

90% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

17.80 ShotsContext 11.10

7.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

40% On target shareContext 51%

11.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

68% Box shareContext 77%

17% ConversionContext 23%

2.67 OffsidesContext 2.40

11.80 Shots allowedContext 19.60

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

3.89 BlocksContext 5.88

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

67% Save rateContext 74%

68% PossessionIn forecast 46%

653 PassesContext 479

581 Accurate passesContext 400

89% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.13 Team ratingContext 7.23

8.30 FoulsContext 9.78

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.56

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayern München WD

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km986 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 63 · 4 pts vs 2.5 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

D5 SepA · FC Schalke 040–02.5 xPts
W28 AugH · VfB Stuttgart5–12.3 xPts

Bodo/Glimt

Rest16 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel2,135 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bayern München	Bodo/Glimt
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Sep	16UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 25 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,135 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	986 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	34

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayern München Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Neuer(G)

19A. Davies 4J. Tah 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer

45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich

14L. Díaz 10J. Musiala 17M. Olise

9H. Kane

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Bodo/Glimt Confirmed XI

4-3-3

12N. Haikin(G)

15F. Bjørkan 4O. Bjørtuft 2V. Nielsen 20F. Sjøvold

19S. Fet 7P. Berg 16J. Kitolano

11O. Blomberg 9A. Helmersen 8S. Auklend

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bayern München Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bodo/Glimt Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bayern München+0.8 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Bodo/Glimt-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Bayern München · Home No home games yet this season.

Bodo/Glimt · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Bayern München	Bodo/Glimt	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	4.06
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	77%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Bayern München	Bodo/Glimt	Forecast
Scored per game	3.40	3.00
Conceded per game	1.20	1.50
Match goals	4.60	4.50	4.06
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	100%	77%
Over 3.5	80%	75%
Both teams scored	60%	75%	57%
Clean sheets	40%	25%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bayern München	Bodo/Glimt	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.86
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.07
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Bayern München	Bodo/Glimt	League
Corners
Corners won	6.33	3.44
Corners conceded	4.00	7.78
Match total	10.33	11.22	8.86
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.50
Opponent cards	2.00	2.40
Match total	3.30	3.90	4.07
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Rade Obrenovič Slovenia · 26 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.15league 4.00

Red cards0.23league 0.07

Cards 5+42%league 36%

Fouls22.9league 24.4

Penalties0.23league 0.21

Home wins50%league 57%

Bayern München1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

W21 Jan 26H · Union St. Gilloise2–03

Bodo/Glimt

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.