UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs Play-offs Thu, Aug 20 · 20:00 Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
Benfica
3–1Full time
Aarhus
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,407 kmRest days3 · 9.1Matches / 14d4 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Benfica—%
Draw—%
Aarhus—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Lisboa)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
  • Cards per match 4.1
  • Penalties per match 0.34
  • Matches 89

Team strength

BenficaAarhus
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
82 Current StrengthIn forecast 38
81 AttackIn forecast 36
81 DefenceIn forecast 31
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Benfica

Attack—
Defense risk—

Aarhus

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BenficaAarhus
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
3.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
2.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.38
0.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21
+0.58 Goals minus xGContext +0.42
100% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
19.00 ShotsContext 12.60
7.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
39% On target shareContext 42%
14.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.80
78% Box shareContext 62%
18% ConversionContext 14%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.43
8.83 Shots allowedContext 16.00
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.20
2.00 BlocksContext 3.90
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
72% Save rateContext 73%
58% PossessionIn forecast 49%
471 PassesContext 402
402 Accurate passesContext 330
85% Pass accuracyContext 82%
7.10 Team ratingContext 6.97
12.00 FoulsContext 11.00
12.71 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60
1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Benfica
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km3,931 km in 14d
Schedule load53%High
Form 53 · 4 pts vs 3.7 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
  • W17 AugA · Casa Pia7–02.3 xPts
  • D9 AugH · Academico Viseu2–22.5 xPts
Aarhus
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,407 km6,709 km in 14d
Schedule load30%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Benfica Aarhus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextHigh · 53Moderate · 30
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastYesNo
Rest dayssince last match3Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 17 Aug9.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 11 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,407 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,931 km6,709 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 4 / 50 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Benfica Confirmed XI
4-1-3-2
24Samuel Soares(G)
26S. Dahl 44Tomás Araújo 2C. Lenglet 6A. Bah
18L. Barreiro
10H. Sudakov 5E. Barrenechea 25G. Prestianni
27Rafa 14V. Pavlidis
Aarhus Confirmed XI
3-5-2
21Mads Hedenstad(G)
19E. Kahl 44M. Camara 25C. Rösler
39Frederik Emmery 4M. Knudsen 10Kristian Arnstad 8S. Jørgensen 26J. Andersen
28James Bogere 31T. Bech

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off
Aarhus Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Benfica · Home No home games yet this season.
Aarhus · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

BenficaAarhusForecast
Scored per game ——
Conceded per game ——
Match goals ——
Over 1.5 ——
Over 2.5 ——
Over 3.5 ——
Both teams scored ——
Clean sheets ——
Failed to score ——
Games00
BenficaAarhusForecast
Scored per game 3.301.50
Conceded per game 1.202.25
Match goals 4.503.75
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 90%100%
Over 3.5 80%50%
Both teams scored 80%50%
Clean sheets 20%25%
Failed to score 0%25%
Games104

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BenficaAarhusLeague
Corners
Corners won——
Corners conceded——
Match total——9.27
Over 8.5——
Over 9.5——
Over 10.5——
Cards
Cards——
Opponent cards——
Match total——4.18
Over 3.5——
Over 4.5——
BenficaAarhusLeague
Corners
Corners won7.004.70
Corners conceded2.295.00
Match total9.299.709.27
Over 8.571% 5/760% 6/10
Over 9.557% 4/740% 4/10
Over 10.543% 3/740% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.301.90
Opponent cards2.901.80
Match total4.203.704.18
Over 3.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 89 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.93league 3.91
Red cards0.15league 0.27
Cards 5+39%league 45%
Fouls23.8league 22.5
Penalties0.34league 0.45
Home wins43%league 55%
Benfica1 with this referee
Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W12 Aug 25H · Nice2–01
Aarhus

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Benfica
No complete event data.
Aarhus
No complete event data.
Benfica10 games · scored 33 · conceded 12
9 0-15
4 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
8 2 46-60
3 3 61-75
7 5 76-90
Aarhus9 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
2 0-15
3 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 4 61-75
3 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.