Primeira Liga Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 9 · 20:30 Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Benfica were clear favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Benfica. Benfica had 3 days of rest, Academico Viseu ? and had to travel 240 km.

Away travel240 kmRest days3 · ?Matches / 14d2 · 0
Benfica81%
Draw12%
Academico Viseu7%
Expected goals 2.92 – 0.76
Benfica77%
Draw15%
Academico Viseu8%
Expected goals 2.54 – 0.70
Benfica81%
Draw12%
Academico Viseu7%
Expected goals 2.92 – 0.76
Benfica75%
Draw15%
Academico Viseu10%
Expected goals 2.61 – 0.85
Benfica80%
Draw13%
Academico Viseu7%
Expected goals 2.85 – 0.75
Over 2.5 71% Both score 50% Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)

No weather data yet

RefereeDavid Silva
  • Cards per match 5.2
  • Penalties per match 0.21
  • Matches 19

Team strength

BenficaAcademico Viseu
79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27
82 Current StrengthIn forecast 32
81 AttackIn forecast 28
81 DefenceIn forecast 31
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Benfica

Attack—
Defense risk—

Academico Viseu

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BenficaAcademico Viseu
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
2.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def —
2.47 xGVia Att/Def —
0.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.33 Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext —
20% Clean sheetsContext —
17.14 ShotsContext —
5.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
34% On target shareContext —
12.86 Shots in the boxContext —
76% Box shareContext —
13% ConversionContext —
1.86 OffsidesContext —
10.71 Shots allowedContext —
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def —
2.25 BlocksContext —
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext —
81% Save rateContext —
57% PossessionIn forecast —
436 PassesContext —
365 Accurate passesContext —
84% Pass accuracyContext —
6.96 Team ratingContext —
10.63 FoulsContext —
14.25 Fouls sufferedContext —
1.20 Yellow cardsContext —
0.10 Red cardsContext —
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 0 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Benfica
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Academico Viseu
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel240 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Benfica Academico Viseu
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 6 Aug—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km240 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 30 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one45.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Benfica Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
24Samuel Soares(G)
26S. Dahl 2C. Lenglet 44Tomás Araújo 6A. Bah
5E. Barrenechea 18L. Barreiro
25G. Prestianni 10H. Sudakov 27Rafa
14V. Pavlidis
Academico Viseu Confirmed XI
4-3-3
98Ewerton(G)
66I. Milioransa 44Rúben Pereira 41A. Correia 75Robinho
8C. Kahraman 45A. Mestanza 14S. Messeguem
10Á. Zamora 33André Clóvis 31João Guilherme

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off
Academico Viseu Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Benfica+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Academico Viseu+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Benfica · Home No home games yet this season.
Academico Viseu · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Referee · David Silva 19 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.05league 4.20
Red cards0.16league 0.20
Cards 5+68%league 20%
Fouls27.1league 24.2
Penalties0.21league 0.40
Home wins26%league 40%
Benfica1 with this referee
Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • D17 May 24A · Rio Ave1–12
Academico Viseu

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Benfica
No complete event data.
Academico Viseu
No complete event data.
Benfica10 games · scored 28 · conceded 11
8 0-15
5 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
3 3 61-75
7 5 76-90
Academico Viseu
No complete event data.

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.