Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Benfica. Benfica had 3.9 days of rest, GIL Vicente 6.9 and had to travel 315 km.
Away travel315 kmRest days3.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
Benfica79%
Draw13%
GIL Vicente8%
Benfica77%
Draw15%
GIL Vicente8%
Benfica79%
Draw13%
GIL Vicente8%
Benfica73%
Draw17%
GIL Vicente11%
Benfica78%
Draw15%
GIL Vicente8%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Benfica
GIL Vicente
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
81
AttackIn forecast
32
81
DefenceIn forecast
50
80
Form indexContext
45
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaGIL Vicente
3.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.25
2.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
0.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.39
+0.83
Goals minus xGContext
-0.48
100%
Scored inContext
50%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
20.80
ShotsContext
15.50
8.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
40%
On target shareContext
27%
15.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
75%
Box shareContext
63%
17%
ConversionContext
5%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.25
5.80
Shots allowedContext
8.00
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
1.67
BlocksContext
1.33
1.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
63%
Save rateContext
100%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
590
PassesContext
490
521
Accurate passesContext
429
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.35
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.00
FoulsContext
13.75
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
0.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.83
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
100%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
20.80
ShotsContext
13.40
8.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
40%
On target shareContext
30%
15.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
75%
Box shareContext
59%
17%
ConversionContext
6%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.30
5.80
Shots allowedContext
10.20
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.60
2.17
BlocksContext
2.89
1.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
63%
Save rateContext
72%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
590
PassesContext
418
521
Accurate passesContext
354
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.35
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.00
FoulsContext
12.60
14.25
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
DWWWW
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,552 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 80 · 13 pts vs 9.2 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
GIL Vicente
WWDL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel315 km32 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 45 · 7 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 Sep | 6.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 315 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,552 km | 32 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
24Samuel Soares(G)
26S. Dahl
2C. Lenglet
44Tomás Araújo
58Daniel Banjaqui
18L. Barreiro
5E. Barrenechea
21A. Schjelderup
25G. Prestianni
27Rafa
14V. Pavlidis
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
30Lucão(G)
20Gil Martins
45David Moreira
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
47Ricardo Esgaio
27Agustín Moreira
12A. Lausen
6Zé Carlos
77Murilo
23Héctor Hernández
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Benfica+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
GIL Vicente · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Benfica | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | W 7–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Academico Viseu | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
8 Benfica wins0 draws0 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game2.88 – 0.75
Over 2.588%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets38% · 0%
- 2 Mar 2026GIL Vicente1–2Benfica
- 26 Sep 2025Benfica2–1GIL Vicente
- 28 Mar 2025GIL Vicente0–3Benfica
- 28 Sep 2024Benfica5–1GIL Vicente
- 4 Feb 2024Benfica3–0GIL Vicente
- 26 Aug 2023GIL Vicente2–3Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.60 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 0.25 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 1.00 | 3.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 25% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 0% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 5 | 4 |
| Benfica | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.60 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 4.30 | 1.90 | 3.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 40% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.25 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 7.75 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.00 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Benfica | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.71 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.14 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.85 | 9.00 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.20 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Benfica5 games · scored 18 · conceded 3
4
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
8
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
GIL Vicente4 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 36 · conceded 7
7
0-15
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
11
2
46-60
6
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
