Benfica vs Tondela – 23 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 3 Sat, Aug 23 · 20:30 Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa

Benfica 6th · 3 pts · 1 played W

3–0Full time

Tondela 18th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were clear favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 19). Benfica usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Benfica had 7 days of rest, Tondela 7.2 and had to travel 219 km.

Away travel219 kmRest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 2

Benfica83%

Draw12%

Tondela5%

Expected goals 2.77 – 0.58

Benfica83%

Draw12%

Tondela5%

Expected goals 2.91 – 0.62

Benfica83%

Draw12%

Tondela5%

Expected goals 2.76 – 0.57

Benfica77%

Draw16%

Tondela7%

Expected goals 2.47 – 0.64

Benfica83%

Draw12%

Tondela5%

Expected goals 2.92 – 0.62

Over 2.5 65% Both score 41% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lisboa)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalAnzhony Rodrigues

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 8

Team strength

Benfica

Tondela

81 L90 StrengthIn forecast 19

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

81 AttackIn forecast 16

81 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tondela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Benfica

Tondela

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00

— Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

— xGVia Att/Def 0.62

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

— Goals minus xGContext -0.62

— Scored inContext 0%

— Clean sheetsContext 0%

— ShotsContext 10.00

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

— On target shareContext 30%

— Shots in the boxContext 5.50

— Box shareContext 57%

— ConversionContext 0%

— OffsidesContext 4.00

— Shots allowedContext 11.00

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

— Save rateContext 55%

— PossessionIn forecast 40%

— PassesContext 314

— Accurate passesContext 260

— Pass accuracyContext 83%

— Team ratingContext 6.64

— FoulsContext 13.00

— Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

— Yellow cardsContext 1.50

— Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 0 and 2 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def —

2.09 xGVia Att/Def —

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext —

90% Scored inContext —

60% Clean sheetsContext —

14.60 ShotsContext —

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

33% On target shareContext —

8.60 Shots in the boxContext —

59% Box shareContext —

14% ConversionContext —

2.78 OffsidesContext —

11.60 Shots allowedContext —

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

2.90 BlocksContext —

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext —

87% Save rateContext —

54% PossessionIn forecast —

438 PassesContext —

362 Accurate passesContext —

83% Pass accuracyContext —

7.13 Team ratingContext —

13.40 FoulsContext —

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext —

2.30 Yellow cardsContext —

0.00 Red cardsContext —

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 0 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Benfica

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km15 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Tondela

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel219 km237 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Benfica	Tondela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 Aug	7.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	219 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	15 km	237 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-4-2

24Samuel Soares(G)

3Rafael Obrador 30N. Otamendi 44Tomás Araújo 17A. Dedić

21A. Schjelderup 5E. Barrenechea 20Richard Ríos 8F. Aursnes

14V. Pavlidis 9F. Ivanović

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Tondela Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31Bernardo Fontes(G)

60N. Maviram 5João Afonso 4Christian Marques 48Tiago Manso

32Juan Rodríguez 8Hélder Tavares

67Yarlen 10J. Hodge 7Pedro Henryque

9Miro

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Benfica Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Tondela Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Benfica+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Tondela+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Benfica · Home No home games yet this season.

Tondela · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Benfica	Tondela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	1.00	2.00	3.35
Over 1.5	0%	50%
Over 2.5	0%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	41%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	2

	Benfica	Tondela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	1.00	2.00	3.35
Over 1.5	0%	50%
Over 2.5	0%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	41%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Benfica	Tondela	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	2.00
Corners conceded	5.00	6.00
Match total	9.00	8.00	9.31
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.50
Opponent cards	3.00	1.00
Match total	6.00	2.50	4.88
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/2

	Benfica	Tondela	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	2.00
Corners conceded	4.50	6.00
Match total	10.10	8.00	9.31
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.50
Opponent cards	2.70	1.00
Match total	5.10	2.50	4.88
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	0% 0/2

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anzhony Rodrigues Portugal · 8 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.38league 5.00

Red cards0.00league 0.16

Cards 5+50%league 63%

Fouls28.8league 28.4

Penalties0.25league 0.37

Home wins38%league 42%

Benfica

No previous matches with this referee.

Tondela

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.