Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were clear favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 14). Besiktas had 5 days of rest, Antalyaspor 5.1 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days5 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Besiktas68%
Draw19%
Antalyaspor13%
Besiktas67%
Draw20%
Antalyaspor13%
Besiktas68%
Draw20%
Antalyaspor13%
Besiktas61%
Draw22%
Antalyaspor17%
Besiktas67%
Draw20%
Antalyaspor13%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 16
Team strength
Besiktas
Antalyaspor
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
60
AttackIn forecast
11
48
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasAntalyaspor
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.54
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
86%
Scored inContext
64%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
15.82
ShotsContext
8.75
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.52
38%
On target shareContext
39%
10.25
Shots in the boxContext
5.89
66%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.12
11.50
Shots allowedContext
13.46
3.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
3.00
BlocksContext
3.07
2.72
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
72%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
420
PassesContext
325
347
Accurate passesContext
254
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.96
FoulsContext
12.57
11.96
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
2.32
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.20
ShotsContext
10.20
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
38%
On target shareContext
34%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
59%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.89
10.00
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
2.60
BlocksContext
3.33
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
71%
Save rateContext
77%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
429
PassesContext
299
353
Accurate passesContext
228
82%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.70
FoulsContext
15.50
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antalyaspor
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Antalyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 5.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
53E. Topçu
35Tiago Djaló
62A. Murillo
10O. Kökçü
17K. Yılmaz
26Jota Silva
15Junior Olaitan
11C. Ünder
9H. Oh
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
14G. Dzhikiya
30L. Giannetti
89V. Sarı
3K. Paal
88D. Šarić
23Jesper Ceesay
8R. Safouri
17E. Yeşilyurt
11S. Ballet
22S. van de Streek
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Antalyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Antalyaspor+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
1.93points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-3
- Scored
- 1.79
- Conceded
- 1.14
Antalyaspor · Away
0.93points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-7
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Besiktas | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce | L 0–1 AL 2–3 H | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–4 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Goztepe | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 AL 0–4 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 1–0 HW 4–0 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Rizespor | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 AL 2–5 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 H | L 1–4 HL 2–3 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 49 of 81 · 1.81 per game | 28 of 81 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Besiktas wins1 draws2 Antalyaspor wins
Goals per game2.20 – 1.80
Over 2.580%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 8 Nov 2025Antalyaspor1–3Besiktas
- 26 Jan 2025Antalyaspor1–1Besiktas
- 18 Aug 2024Besiktas4–2Antalyaspor
- 16 Mar 2024Besiktas1–2Antalyaspor
- 5 Nov 2023Antalyaspor3–2Besiktas
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 2.54 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 54% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 54% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 36% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Besiktas | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 3.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.41 | 5.61 | |
| Match total | 9.97 | 9.57 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 17/27 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 14/27 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 11/27 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.46 | 2.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.11 | 2.54 | |
| Match total | 5.57 | 4.93 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 82% 23/28 | 68% 19/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 16/28 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Besiktas | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.40 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.70 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 5.40 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.19league 4.42
Red cards0.06league 0.21
Cards 5+44%league 45%
Fouls26.8league 26.1
Penalties0.44league 0.27
Home wins44%league 40%
Besiktas3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against3 · 0
- D26 Oct 25A · Kasimpasa1–12
- W24 Sep 25A · Kayserispor4–02
- W25 Apr 25H · Hatayspor5–10
Antalyaspor2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W13 Feb 26H · Samsunspor3–14
- L30 Nov 25H · Goztepe1–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas28 games · scored 49 · conceded 32
10
3
0-15
6
5
16-30
10
6
31-45
8
5
46-60
7
5
61-75
8
8
76-90
Antalyaspor28 games · scored 28 · conceded 43
3
9
0-15
4
4
16-30
5
6
31-45
4
8
46-60
5
4
61-75
7
12
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
