Besiktas
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Besiktas68.0%fair odds 1.47
Draw19.4%fair odds 5.15
Antalyaspor12.6%fair odds 7.93
Expected goals2.23 – 0.86total 3.09
Likeliest score2–011.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Antalyaspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Besiktas ↓ · Antalyaspor → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Besiktas goals, columns Antalyaspor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.3%8.82
- 2–19.7%10.28
- 1–09.7%10.29
- 1–19.2%10.86
- 3–08.4%11.89
- 3–17.2%13.85
- 0–05.0%19.86
- 4–04.7%21.36
- 2–24.2%23.93
- 4–14.0%24.88
Winning margin
24.3%
Besiktas by 3+
fair 4.11
20.5%
Besiktas by 2
fair 4.87
23.1%
Besiktas by 1
fair 4.33
19.4%
Draw
fair 5.15
8.6%
Antalyaspor by 1
fair 11.60
3.1%
Antalyaspor by 2
fair 32.76
0.9%
Antalyaspor by 3+
fair 106.32
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Besiktas goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
Antalyaspor goals
42%0
36%1
16%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 68.0% | 67.0% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 19.4% | 19.9% | -0.5 pp |
| Antalyaspor win | 12.6% | 13.0% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 58.4% | +1.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.9% | 51.5% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Besiktas | 2.23 | 2.18 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Antalyaspor | 0.86 | 0.86 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Besiktas win68.0%1.47
- Draw19.4%5.15
- Antalyaspor win12.6%7.93
- Double chance Besiktas or draw87.4%1.14
- Double chance Besiktas or Antalyaspor80.6%1.24
- Double chance Antalyaspor or draw32.0%3.12
- Draw no bet Besiktas84.3%1.19
- Draw no bet Antalyaspor15.7%6.39
Goals
- Over 0.595.0%1.05
- Over 1.581.8%1.22
- Over 2.559.6%1.68
- Over 3.537.2%2.69
- Over 4.519.9%5.02
- Under 1.518.2%5.49
- Under 2.540.4%2.47
- Under 3.562.8%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes51.9%1.93
- No48.1%2.08
- Yes and over 2.542.7%2.34
- Besiktas win and yes30.6%3.27
- Draw and yes14.4%6.95
- Antalyaspor win and yes6.9%14.58
Team goals
- Besiktas over 0.589.2%1.12
- Besiktas over 1.565.2%1.53
- Besiktas over 2.538.4%2.60
- Antalyaspor over 0.557.6%1.74
- Antalyaspor over 1.521.2%4.71
- Antalyaspor over 2.55.6%17.78
- Besiktas clean sheet42.4%2.36
- Antalyaspor clean sheet10.8%9.27
- Besiktas win to nil37.3%2.68
- Antalyaspor win to nil5.8%17.37
Handicap
- Besiktas −1.544.9%2.23
- Besiktas −2.524.3%4.11
- Antalyaspor +1.555.1%1.81
- Antalyaspor +2.575.7%1.32
- Antalyaspor −1.54.0%25.04
- Besiktas +1.596.0%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored252
Favourite won52.0%
Avg chance given to result40.8%
1X2 Brier0.585
Over 2.5 called right53.6%
BTTS called right52.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 39 | 38.2% | 38.5% |
| 40–50% | 101 | 44.1% | 41.6% |
| 50–60% | 65 | 55.0% | 58.5% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 65.2% | 74.1% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 75.7% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 82.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 202 of 252 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5892 | 0.5747 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.6% | 41.8% |
| Favourite won | 53.5% | 54.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 202 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 252 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.