Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were slight favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 27). Besiktas had 4.1 days of rest, Çorum FK 9.1 and had to travel 508 km.
Away travel508 kmRest days4.1 · 9.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
Besiktas57%
Draw23%
Çorum FK20%
Besiktas56%
Draw23%
Çorum FK21%
Besiktas57%
Draw23%
Çorum FK20%
Besiktas49%
Draw25%
Çorum FK26%
Besiktas55%
Draw24%
Çorum FK21%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 17
Team strength
Besiktas
Çorum FK
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
60
AttackIn forecast
31
48
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisÇorum FK
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasÇorum FK
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
0.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
-0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
50%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.50
ShotsContext
12.00
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
33%
On target shareContext
21%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
47%
Box shareContext
50%
3%
ConversionContext
8%
3.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
6.50
Shots allowedContext
22.00
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
—
BlocksContext
—
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
75%
Save rateContext
85%
66%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
541
PassesContext
511
474
Accurate passesContext
436
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.93
17.00
FoulsContext
9.00
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
—
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
—
80%
Scored inContext
—
60%
Clean sheetsContext
—
18.50
ShotsContext
—
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
32%
On target shareContext
—
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
—
56%
Box shareContext
—
5%
ConversionContext
—
3.00
OffsidesContext
—
11.25
Shots allowedContext
—
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
4.25
BlocksContext
—
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
67%
Save rateContext
—
64%
PossessionIn forecast
—
496
PassesContext
—
432
Accurate passesContext
—
87%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.87
Team ratingContext
—
10.43
FoulsContext
—
12.86
Fouls sufferedContext
—
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
—
0.00
Red cardsContext
—
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
WL
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km4,302 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 42 · 3 pts vs 3.9 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Çorum FK |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 27 Aug | 9.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 508 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,302 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
1A. Nübel(G)
33R. Yılmaz
35Tiago Djaló
12E. Agbadou
62A. Murillo
6S. Özcan
19L. Trossard
10O. Kökçü
15Junior Olaitan
18V. Černý
28D. Vlahović
Çorum FK
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
24A. Borza
6H. Smolčić
5Alexandre Penetra
11G. Sazdağı
20Y. Ramadani
3B. Özdemir
17E. Gürlük
10M. Diomande
7S. Gürler
19J. Ramírez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Çorum FK
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Çorum FK-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Çorum FK · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Çorum FK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.50 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Besiktas | Çorum FK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.50 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Çorum FK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 1.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 9.00 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 2.50 | 3.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Besiktas | Çorum FK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 1.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 11.57 | 9.00 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.50 | 3.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/2 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.29league 3.08
Red cards0.18league 0.16
Cards 5+18%league 28%
Fouls24.2league 26.0
Penalties0.18league 0.32
Home wins41%league 40%
Besiktas1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W11 May 25H · Adana Demirspor4–13
Çorum FKNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas2 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Çorum FK2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
76-90
Çorum FK2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
