Besiktas
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Besiktas56.4%fair odds 1.77
Draw24.0%fair odds 4.17
Çorum FK19.7%fair odds 5.08
Expected goals1.82 – 0.99total 2.81
Likeliest score1–111.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Çorum FK
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Besiktas ↓ · Çorum FK → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Besiktas goals, columns Çorum FK goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%8.76
- 1–010.4%9.63
- 2–010.0%10.01
- 2–19.9%10.13
- 0–06.6%15.18
- 3–06.1%16.49
- 3–16.0%16.68
- 0–15.4%18.61
- 1–25.4%18.66
- 2–24.9%20.49
Winning margin
15.1%
Besiktas by 3+
fair 6.61
17.5%
Besiktas by 2
fair 5.71
23.7%
Besiktas by 1
fair 4.22
24.0%
Draw
fair 4.17
12.6%
Çorum FK by 1
fair 7.93
5.2%
Çorum FK by 2
fair 19.40
1.9%
Çorum FK by 3+
fair 52.41
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Besiktas goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Çorum FK goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 56.4% | 54.9% | +1.5 pp |
| Draw | 24.0% | 25.1% | -1.1 pp |
| Çorum FK win | 19.7% | 20.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 49.3% | +4.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.2% | 50.5% | +2.7 pp |
| Expected goals Besiktas | 1.82 | 1.71 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals Çorum FK | 0.99 | 0.94 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Besiktas win56.4%1.77
- Draw24.0%4.17
- Çorum FK win19.7%5.08
- Double chance Besiktas or draw80.3%1.24
- Double chance Besiktas or Çorum FK76.0%1.32
- Double chance Çorum FK or draw43.6%2.29
- Draw no bet Besiktas74.1%1.35
- Draw no bet Çorum FK25.9%3.87
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.7%1.29
- Over 2.553.3%1.88
- Over 3.531.0%3.22
- Over 4.515.4%6.49
- Under 1.522.3%4.47
- Under 2.546.7%2.14
- Under 3.569.0%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes53.2%1.88
- No46.8%2.14
- Yes and over 2.541.8%2.39
- Besiktas win and yes25.7%3.88
- Draw and yes17.4%5.75
- Çorum FK win and yes10.1%9.91
Team goals
- Besiktas over 0.583.8%1.19
- Besiktas over 1.554.4%1.84
- Besiktas over 2.527.5%3.63
- Çorum FK over 0.562.8%1.59
- Çorum FK over 1.526.0%3.84
- Çorum FK over 2.57.8%12.78
- Besiktas clean sheet37.2%2.69
- Çorum FK clean sheet16.2%6.18
- Besiktas win to nil30.6%3.27
- Çorum FK win to nil9.6%10.44
Handicap
- Besiktas −1.532.6%3.06
- Besiktas −2.515.1%6.61
- Çorum FK +1.567.4%1.48
- Çorum FK +2.584.9%1.18
- Çorum FK −1.57.1%14.16
- Besiktas +1.592.9%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored25
Favourite won36.0%
Avg chance given to result37.3%
1X2 Brier0.657
Over 2.5 called right48.0%
BTTS called right48.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.4% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 44.8% | 9.1% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 56.2% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.1% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 25 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 25 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.