Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were clear favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Besiktas. Besiktas had 6 days of rest, Erzurumspor FK 6.1 and had to travel 1,049 km.
Away travel1,049 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Besiktas65%
Draw20%
Erzurumspor FK15%
Besiktas59%
Draw22%
Erzurumspor FK18%
Besiktas66%
Draw20%
Erzurumspor FK15%
Besiktas57%
Draw23%
Erzurumspor FK20%
Besiktas63%
Draw21%
Erzurumspor FK16%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeGurcan Hasova
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.56
- Matches 9
Team strength
Besiktas
Erzurumspor FK
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
60
AttackIn forecast
17
48
DefenceIn forecast
38
69
Form indexContext
26
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisErzurumspor FK
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasErzurumspor FK
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
0.52
0.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
75%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
16.25
ShotsContext
9.50
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
37%
On target shareContext
34%
9.75
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
60%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
5%
3.75
OffsidesContext
1.33
8.25
Shots allowedContext
13.25
2.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
4.33
BlocksContext
2.50
1.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
56%
Save rateContext
55%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
473
PassesContext
435
406
Accurate passesContext
364
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.54
16.00
FoulsContext
11.75
14.25
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
0.52
0.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
50%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
16.25
ShotsContext
9.50
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
37%
On target shareContext
34%
9.75
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
60%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
5%
3.75
OffsidesContext
1.33
8.25
Shots allowedContext
13.25
2.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
3.40
BlocksContext
2.50
1.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
56%
Save rateContext
55%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
473
PassesContext
435
406
Accurate passesContext
364
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.54
11.71
FoulsContext
11.75
14.14
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
WLWW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 9 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
Erzurumspor FK
LLDW
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,049 km1,436 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 26 · 4 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Erzurumspor FK |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 6.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,049 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,436 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Last XI · not confirmed
1A. Nübel(G)
33R. Yılmaz
53E. Topçu
12E. Agbadou
62A. Murillo
6S. Özcan
19L. Trossard
10O. Kökçü
15Junior Olaitan
18V. Černý
28D. Vlahović
Erzurumspor FK
Last XI · not confirmed
1M. Taşkıran(G)
15G. Giorbelidze
18N. Mujakić
22M. Yumlu
4A. Gerxhaliu
53O. Ovacıklı
65M. Rodríguez
6B. Baiye
42E. Owusu
99M. Fettahoğlu
10E. Tozlu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Erzurumspor FK
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Erzurumspor FK+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Erzurumspor FK · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Erzurumspor FK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Besiktas | Erzurumspor FK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 25% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Erzurumspor FK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 11.75 | 6.75 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.25 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Besiktas | Erzurumspor FK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.86 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 6.75 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.25 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 2/4 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gurcan Hasova Türkiye · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.11league 3.58
Red cards0.22league 0.17
Cards 5+78%league 39%
Fouls24.4league 26.1
Penalties0.56league 0.39
Home wins44%league 44%
Besiktas1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L19 Apr 26A · Samsunspor1–22
Erzurumspor FKNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas4 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Erzurumspor FK4 games · scored 2 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 17 · conceded 5
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Erzurumspor FK4 games · scored 2 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
