Besiktas
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Besiktas64.3%fair odds 1.55
Draw21.2%fair odds 4.72
Erzurumspor FK14.5%fair odds 6.89
Expected goals2.06 – 0.88total 2.94
Likeliest score2–011.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Erzurumspor FK
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Besiktas ↓ · Erzurumspor FK → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Besiktas goals, columns Erzurumspor FK goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.2%8.89
- 1–010.4%9.62
- 1–110.1%9.93
- 2–19.9%10.14
- 3–07.7%12.93
- 3–16.8%14.74
- 0–05.8%17.27
- 2–24.3%23.11
- 1–24.2%23.84
- 0–14.1%24.22
Winning margin
20.8%
Besiktas by 3+
fair 4.80
19.8%
Besiktas by 2
fair 5.06
23.7%
Besiktas by 1
fair 4.21
21.2%
Draw
fair 4.72
9.8%
Erzurumspor FK by 1
fair 10.21
3.6%
Erzurumspor FK by 2
fair 27.98
1.1%
Erzurumspor FK by 3+
fair 87.82
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Besiktas goals
13%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
15%4+
Erzurumspor FK goals
42%0
36%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 64.3% | 62.9% | +1.4 pp |
| Draw | 21.2% | 21.9% | -0.8 pp |
| Erzurumspor FK win | 14.5% | 15.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 54.5% | +1.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.5% | 50.7% | +0.8 pp |
| Expected goals Besiktas | 2.06 | 1.99 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Erzurumspor FK | 0.88 | 0.87 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Besiktas win64.3%1.55
- Draw21.2%4.72
- Erzurumspor FK win14.5%6.89
- Double chance Besiktas or draw85.5%1.17
- Double chance Besiktas or Erzurumspor FK78.8%1.27
- Double chance Erzurumspor FK or draw35.7%2.80
- Draw no bet Besiktas81.6%1.23
- Draw no bet Erzurumspor FK18.4%5.43
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.579.7%1.25
- Over 2.556.3%1.78
- Over 3.533.9%2.95
- Over 4.517.5%5.72
- Under 1.520.3%4.92
- Under 2.543.7%2.29
- Under 3.566.1%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes51.5%1.94
- No48.5%2.06
- Yes and over 2.541.4%2.41
- Besiktas win and yes28.5%3.51
- Draw and yes15.4%6.50
- Erzurumspor FK win and yes7.6%13.16
Team goals
- Besiktas over 0.587.3%1.15
- Besiktas over 1.561.1%1.64
- Besiktas over 2.534.0%2.94
- Erzurumspor FK over 0.558.4%1.71
- Erzurumspor FK over 1.521.9%4.56
- Erzurumspor FK over 2.55.9%16.90
- Besiktas clean sheet41.6%2.40
- Erzurumspor FK clean sheet12.7%7.87
- Besiktas win to nil35.8%2.79
- Erzurumspor FK win to nil6.9%14.46
Handicap
- Besiktas −1.540.6%2.46
- Besiktas −2.520.8%4.80
- Erzurumspor FK +1.559.4%1.68
- Erzurumspor FK +2.579.2%1.26
- Erzurumspor FK −1.54.7%21.22
- Besiktas +1.595.3%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won44.4%
Avg chance given to result38.2%
1X2 Brier0.632
Over 2.5 called right52.8%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.5% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 15 | 44.7% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 55.0% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.1% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 10 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6052 | 0.6250 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.5% | 37.7% |
| Favourite won | 60.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 10 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Rizespor 0–1 Alanyaspor52·25·24
- ✗Goztepe 2–4 Gazişehir Gaziantep52·23·25
- ✓Kocaelispor 1–0 Samsunspor40·26·34
- ✓Trabzonspor 5–0 Genclerbirligi55·22·23
- ✓Çorum FK 3–0 Eyüpspor47·26·27
- ✗Kasimpasa 2–2 Amed39·27·34
- ✗Fenerbahce 1–2 Besiktas56·21·22
- ✓Erzurumspor FK 1–0 Konyaspor49·24·27
- ✓Istanbul Basaksehir 2–3 Galatasaray24·22·54
- ✓Amed 2–1 Trabzonspor42·25·33
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.