Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fenerbahce were slight favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 36). Besiktas had 7 days of rest, Fenerbahce 6 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 3
Besiktas28%
Draw26%
Fenerbahce46%
Besiktas28%
Draw26%
Fenerbahce46%
Besiktas28%
Draw26%
Fenerbahce47%
Besiktas22%
Draw24%
Fenerbahce54%
Besiktas28%
Draw26%
Fenerbahce46%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 9
Team strength
Besiktas
Fenerbahce
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
60
AttackIn forecast
75
48
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasFenerbahce
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.94
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.69
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.70
ShotsContext
16.40
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
39%
On target shareContext
35%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
76%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.60
Shots allowedContext
9.00
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
2.78
BlocksContext
3.25
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
68%
Save rateContext
89%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
409
PassesContext
471
340
Accurate passesContext
406
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.03
13.70
FoulsContext
12.90
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
-0.48
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.30
ShotsContext
15.90
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.10
37%
On target shareContext
38%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
76%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.40
Shots allowedContext
9.50
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
3.11
BlocksContext
3.00
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
69%
Save rateContext
89%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
415
PassesContext
466
340
Accurate passesContext
396
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.93
13.50
FoulsContext
12.20
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
3.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km926 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fenerbahce
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,700 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 926 km | 1,700 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
53E. Topçu
3G. de Abreu
25G. Sazdagi
10O. Kökçü
4O. Ndidi
18V. Černý
27Rafa
11C. Ünder
19E. Touré
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
22M. Mercan
24J. Oosterwolde
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
11E. Álvarez
9M. Aktürkoğlu
5İ. Yüksek
21Marco Asensio
45D. Nene
19Y. En-Nesyri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fenerbahce-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Fenerbahce · Away
1.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-0
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 0.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Besiktas | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Besiktas wins0 draws2 Fenerbahce wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 4 May 2025Fenerbahce0–1Besiktas
- 7 Dec 2024Besiktas1–0Fenerbahce
- 27 Apr 2024Fenerbahce2–1Besiktas
- 9 Dec 2023Besiktas1–3Fenerbahce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Besiktas | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 11.56 | 9.43 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 6.20 | 4.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Besiktas | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.11 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 11.44 | 10.13 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 6.30 | 4.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.56league 4.63
Red cards0.00league 0.28
Cards 5+56%league 53%
Fouls25.7league 26.2
Penalties0.44league 0.27
Home wins56%league 38%
BesiktasNo previous matches with this referee.
Fenerbahce1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W28 Sep 25H · Antalyaspor2–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 18 · conceded 6
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
