Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Besiktas
6th · 24 pts · 14 played
DLWDW
2–2Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
7th · 22 pts · 14 played
LDDWL
Our take
Besiktas were slight favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 23). Besiktas had 8 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 9.1 and had to travel 850 km.
Away travel850 kmRest days8 · 9.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Besiktas55%
Draw24%
Gazişehir Gaziantep21%
Besiktas55%
Draw25%
Gazişehir Gaziantep21%
Besiktas55%
Draw24%
Gazişehir Gaziantep21%
Besiktas47%
Draw25%
Gazişehir Gaziantep27%
Besiktas54%
Draw24%
Gazişehir Gaziantep21%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 10
Team strength
BesiktasGazişehir Gaziantep
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
60
AttackIn forecast
15
48
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasGazişehir Gaziantep
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
86%
Scored inContext
71%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
14.14
ShotsContext
13.71
5.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.64
38%
On target shareContext
34%
10.43
Shots in the boxContext
8.07
74%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.89
11.07
Shots allowedContext
12.57
3.62
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
2.92
BlocksContext
2.79
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
71%
Save rateContext
63%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
413
PassesContext
410
342
Accurate passesContext
345
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.00
FoulsContext
13.00
11.57
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
100%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.30
ShotsContext
13.80
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
42%
On target shareContext
38%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
75%
Box shareContext
54%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.30
Shots allowedContext
12.30
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
79%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
396
PassesContext
425
323
Accurate passesContext
359
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.70
FoulsContext
12.80
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel850 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 9.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 850 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
53E. Topçu
3G. de Abreu
25G. Sazdagi
10O. Kökçü
4O. Ndidi
26Jota Silva
18V. Černý
11C. Ünder
19E. Touré
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
20Z. Görgen(G)
4A. Kızıldağ
14L. Abena
23T. Sanuç
77K. Rodrigues
3D. Camara
61O. Özçiçek
2Luis Pérez
44A. Maxim
10K. Kozłowski
9M. Bayo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
1.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.50
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
1.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Besiktas | Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 3–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 H | L 0–4 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 21 of 36 · 1.75 per game | 20 of 36 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Besiktas wins1 draws2 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 10 Mar 2025Besiktas1–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 6 Oct 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep1–1Besiktas
- 11 Mar 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep2–0Besiktas
- 30 Oct 2023Besiktas2–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.93 | 3.07 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 71% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Besiktas | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.46 | 5.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.92 | 4.15 | |
| Match total | 10.38 | 10.00 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 9/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 5/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.57 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 4.71 | 6.50 | 4.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 11/14 | 86% 12/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 79% 11/14 | |
| Besiktas | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 6.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.78 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 6.30 | 4.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.10league 4.47
Red cards0.10league 0.27
Cards 5+40%league 47%
Fouls28.5league 26.1
Penalties0.20league 0.27
Home wins40%league 35%
Besiktas1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L31 Aug 25A · Alanyaspor0–23
Gazişehir GaziantepNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas14 games · scored 24 · conceded 17
7
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep14 games · scored 21 · conceded 22
3
5
0-15
2
5
16-30
6
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
6
2
61-75
3
7
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
7
0-15
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
