Süper Lig Gameweek 15 Mon, Dec 8 · 17:00 Tüpraş Stadyumu, İstanbul
Besiktas 6th · 24 pts · 14 played
2–2Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep 7th · 22 pts · 14 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Besiktas55.1%fair odds 1.82
Draw23.7%fair odds 4.21
Gazişehir Gaziantep21.2%fair odds 4.73
Expected goals1.86 – 1.07total 2.93
Likeliest score1–111.2%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Besiktas

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Gazişehir Gaziantep

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Besiktas ↓ · Gazişehir Gaziantep →0123456+
05.95.23.11.10.30.10.0
19.311.25.72.00.50.10.0
29.29.95.31.90.50.10.0
35.76.13.31.20.30.10.0
42.62.81.50.50.10.00.0
51.01.10.60.20.10.00.0
6+0.40.40.20.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Besiktas goals, columns Gazişehir Gaziantep goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.2%8.92
  • 2–19.9%10.12
  • 1–09.3%10.71
  • 2–09.2%10.88
  • 3–16.1%16.36
  • 0–05.9%16.95
  • 1–25.7%17.49
  • 3–05.7%17.58
  • 2–25.3%18.85
  • 0–15.2%19.35

Winning margin

14.9% Besiktas by 3+ fair 6.70
17.1% Besiktas by 2 fair 5.86
23.1% Besiktas by 1 fair 4.33
23.7% Draw fair 4.21
13.1% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 1 fair 7.61
5.7% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 2 fair 17.51
2.3% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 3+ fair 43.16

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
15%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+

Besiktas goals

16%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+

Gazişehir Gaziantep goals

34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Besiktas win 55.1% 54.4% +0.7 pp
Draw 23.7% 24.4% -0.6 pp
Gazişehir Gaziantep win 21.2% 21.2% -0.1 pp
Over 2.5 56.1% 53.7% +2.4 pp
Both teams score 56.1% 54.4% +1.8 pp
Expected goals Besiktas 1.86 1.79 +0.07
Expected goals Gazişehir Gaziantep 1.07 1.04 +0.04

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Besiktas win55.1%1.82
  • Draw23.7%4.21
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win21.2%4.73
  • Double chance Besiktas or draw78.8%1.27
  • Double chance Besiktas or Gazişehir Gaziantep76.3%1.31
  • Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or draw44.9%2.23
  • Draw no bet Besiktas72.2%1.38
  • Draw no bet Gazişehir Gaziantep27.8%3.60

Goals

  • Over 0.594.1%1.06
  • Over 1.579.6%1.26
  • Over 2.556.1%1.78
  • Over 3.533.7%2.96
  • Over 4.517.3%5.77
  • Under 1.520.4%4.90
  • Under 2.543.9%2.28
  • Under 3.566.3%1.51

Both teams to score

  • Yes56.1%1.78
  • No43.9%2.28
  • Yes and over 2.544.9%2.23
  • Besiktas win and yes26.8%3.73
  • Draw and yes17.8%5.60
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win and yes11.4%8.74

Team goals

  • Besiktas over 0.584.4%1.19
  • Besiktas over 1.555.4%1.81
  • Besiktas over 2.528.5%3.51
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 0.565.8%1.52
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 1.529.2%3.43
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 2.59.4%10.58
  • Besiktas clean sheet34.2%2.93
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep clean sheet15.6%6.40
  • Besiktas win to nil28.3%3.54
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win to nil9.7%10.28

Handicap

  • Besiktas −1.532.0%3.13
  • Besiktas −2.514.9%6.70
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep +1.568.0%1.47
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep +2.585.1%1.18
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep −1.58.0%12.46
  • Besiktas +1.592.0%1.09

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored133 Favourite won46.6% Avg chance given to result39.9% 1X2 Brier0.599 Over 2.5 called right50.4% BTTS called right50.4%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2038.1%30.0%
40–50%6044.2%35.0%
50–60%3055.1%56.7%
60–70%1465.7%71.4%
70–80%776.1%85.7%
80%+282.6%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 107 of 133 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.60930.5934
Avg chance given to result39.3%40.6%
Favourite won47.7%49.5%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 107 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 133 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.