Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were slight favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 25). Besiktas had 12.9 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 13 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days12.9 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Besiktas50%
Draw25%
Istanbul Basaksehir25%
Besiktas49%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir25%
Besiktas50%
Draw25%
Istanbul Basaksehir25%
Besiktas43%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir31%
Besiktas49%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir25%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeAlper Akarsu
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 18
Team strength
Besiktas
Istanbul Basaksehir
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
60
AttackIn forecast
32
48
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasIstanbul Basaksehir
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
2.33
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.53
-1.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.50
ShotsContext
11.50
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
36%
On target shareContext
35%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
74%
Box shareContext
71%
7%
ConversionContext
4%
3.50
OffsidesContext
—
9.50
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
2.50
BlocksContext
2.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
57%
Save rateContext
75%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
488
PassesContext
409
430
Accurate passesContext
348
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.93
16.00
FoulsContext
16.00
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.95
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.55
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.80
ShotsContext
13.00
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
37%
On target shareContext
27%
10.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.44
68%
Box shareContext
73%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.88
OffsidesContext
3.25
10.40
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.43
BlocksContext
2.67
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
74%
Save rateContext
68%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
549
PassesContext
446
481
Accurate passesContext
379
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.98
12.10
FoulsContext
12.89
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.22
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,126 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 13Süper Lig 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,126 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
1F. Günok(G)
39D. Jurásek
14O. Uduokhai
35Tiago Djaló
25G. Sazdağı
10O. Kökçü
8S. Uçan
19E. Touré
27Rafa
18V. Černý
9T. Abraham
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
27O. Ba
36F. Ebosele
2B. Özdemir
77I. Brnić
8O. Kemen
13Miguel Crespo
7Y. Sarı
14E. Shomurodov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Besiktas | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Besiktas wins2 draws1 Istanbul Basaksehir wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.75
Over 2.50%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 12 Apr 2025Besiktas0–2Istanbul Basaksehir
- 10 Nov 2024Istanbul Basaksehir0–0Besiktas
- 4 Apr 2024Istanbul Basaksehir1–1Besiktas
- 12 Nov 2023Besiktas1–0Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Besiktas | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.50 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.00 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Besiktas | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 9.88 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 5.10 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alper Akarsu 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.72league 4.06
Red cards0.06league 0.24
Cards 5+56%league 39%
Fouls23.4league 25.2
Penalties0.44league 0.30
Home wins44%league 36%
Besiktas1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Nov 24H · Goztepe2–41
Istanbul Basaksehir2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against3 · 0
- D23 Dec 24H · Kasimpasa2–22
- W28 Jan 24A · Konyaspor3–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir2 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
