Besiktas
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Besiktas50.5%fair odds 1.98
Draw24.9%fair odds 4.01
Istanbul Basaksehir24.6%fair odds 4.06
Expected goals1.73 – 1.15total 2.88
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Istanbul Basaksehir
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Besiktas ↓ · Istanbul Basaksehir → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Besiktas goals, columns Istanbul Basaksehir goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.50
- 2–19.7%10.34
- 1–09.2%10.91
- 2–08.4%11.85
- 1–26.4%15.63
- 0–06.2%16.05
- 0–15.9%17.05
- 3–15.6%17.93
- 2–25.5%18.07
- 3–04.9%20.53
Winning margin
12.3%
Besiktas by 3+
fair 8.14
15.6%
Besiktas by 2
fair 6.41
22.6%
Besiktas by 1
fair 4.42
24.9%
Draw
fair 4.01
14.8%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 1
fair 6.78
6.8%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 2
fair 14.64
3.0%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 3+
fair 33.19
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Besiktas goals
18%0
31%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
Istanbul Basaksehir goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 50.5% | 49.5% | +1.0 pp |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.8% | -0.9 pp |
| Istanbul Basaksehir win | 24.6% | 24.7% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.8% | 51.4% | +3.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.7% | 54.1% | +2.5 pp |
| Expected goals Besiktas | 1.73 | 1.64 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals Istanbul Basaksehir | 1.15 | 1.09 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Besiktas win50.5%1.98
- Draw24.9%4.01
- Istanbul Basaksehir win24.6%4.06
- Double chance Besiktas or draw75.4%1.33
- Double chance Besiktas or Istanbul Basaksehir75.1%1.33
- Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or draw49.5%2.02
- Draw no bet Besiktas67.2%1.49
- Draw no bet Istanbul Basaksehir32.8%3.05
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.578.7%1.27
- Over 2.554.8%1.82
- Over 3.532.5%3.08
- Over 4.516.4%6.09
- Under 1.521.3%4.70
- Under 2.545.2%2.21
- Under 3.567.5%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes56.7%1.76
- No43.3%2.31
- Yes and over 2.544.9%2.23
- Besiktas win and yes24.9%4.02
- Draw and yes18.7%5.35
- Istanbul Basaksehir win and yes13.1%7.63
Team goals
- Besiktas over 0.582.3%1.22
- Besiktas over 1.551.6%1.94
- Besiktas over 2.525.1%3.99
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.568.2%1.47
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.531.7%3.15
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.510.9%9.19
- Besiktas clean sheet31.8%3.14
- Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet17.7%5.64
- Besiktas win to nil25.6%3.91
- Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil11.5%8.70
Handicap
- Besiktas −1.527.9%3.59
- Besiktas −2.512.3%8.14
- Istanbul Basaksehir +1.572.1%1.39
- Istanbul Basaksehir +2.587.7%1.14
- Istanbul Basaksehir −1.59.8%10.16
- Besiktas +1.590.2%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored33
Favourite won42.4%
Avg chance given to result42.5%
1X2 Brier0.557
Over 2.5 called right57.6%
BTTS called right42.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.2% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 15 | 45.2% | 20.0% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 55.5% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 65.6% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 78.2% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 9 of 33 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5590 | 0.5070 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.0% | 45.2% |
| Favourite won | 44.4% | 55.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 9 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 33 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.