Besiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Trabzonspor. Besiktas had 8 days of rest, Trabzonspor 7 and had to travel 904 km.
Away travel904 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Besiktas46%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor28%
Besiktas42%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor31%
Besiktas44%
Draw26%
Trabzonspor30%
Besiktas39%
Draw26%
Trabzonspor35%
Besiktas46%
Draw26%
Trabzonspor28%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 22
Team strength
Besiktas
Trabzonspor
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
60
AttackIn forecast
54
48
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTrabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BesiktasTrabzonspor
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.84
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.09
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
84%
Scored inContext
94%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
15.78
ShotsContext
14.81
6.03
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.06
38%
On target shareContext
34%
10.13
Shots in the boxContext
9.39
65%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.21
11.69
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.10
BlocksContext
3.53
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
73%
Save rateContext
76%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
436
PassesContext
438
364
Accurate passesContext
379
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.99
12.66
FoulsContext
11.59
11.78
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
2.19
Yellow cardsContext
1.56
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
70%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.40
ShotsContext
13.60
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
36%
On target shareContext
27%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
59%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.70
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.20
BlocksContext
2.90
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
84%
Save rateContext
77%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
475
PassesContext
472
404
Accurate passesContext
411
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.00
Team ratingContext
7.02
12.50
FoulsContext
10.60
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Besiktas
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,700 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Trabzonspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel904 km1,425 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Besiktas |
Trabzonspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 May | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 904 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,700 km | 1,425 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
35Tiago Djaló
12E. Agbadou
62A. Murillo
23K. Asllani
19E. Touré
15Junior Olaitan
10O. Kökçü
18V. Černý
9H. Oh
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
14M. Løvik
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
74S. Malkoçoğlu
11O. Tufan
8B. Bouchouari
42Christ Inao Oulaï
9A. Nwakaeme
10E. Muçi
22O. Zubkov
18M. Nayir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Besiktas
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Trabzonspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Besiktas+2.0 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Trabzonspor-1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Besiktas · Home
1.94points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-4-3
- Scored
- 1.81
- Conceded
- 1.13
Trabzonspor · Away
2.06points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 10-3-3
- Scored
- 1.88
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Besiktas | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–0 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | W 3–1 HW 4–3 A |
| Samsunspor | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–2 HW 3–1 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–1 AL 2–3 H | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | L 3–4 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Goztepe | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Kayserispor | W 1–0 HW 4–0 A | W 3–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Rizespor | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 58 of 93 · 1.87 per game | 65 of 93 · 2.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Besiktas wins2 draws1 Trabzonspor wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 14 Dec 2025Trabzonspor3–3Besiktas
- 15 Feb 2025Besiktas2–1Trabzonspor
- 15 Sep 2024Trabzonspor1–1Besiktas
- 4 Feb 2024Besiktas2–0Trabzonspor
- 17 Sep 2023Trabzonspor3–0Besiktas
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Besiktas | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.84 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.09 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.94 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 53% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 69% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 6% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Besiktas | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.50 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Besiktas | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.61 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.39 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.90 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 19/31 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 16/31 | 53% 16/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 12/31 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.06 | 2.53 | |
| Match total | 5.37 | 4.22 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 25/32 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 18/32 | 28% 9/32 | |
| Besiktas | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.80 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.90 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.45league 4.43
Red cards0.14league 0.22
Cards 5+32%league 45%
Fouls26.5league 26.0
Penalties0.41league 0.28
Home wins41%league 41%
Besiktas2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D8 Feb 26H · Alanyaspor2–22
- L18 Oct 25H · Genclerbirligi1–22
Trabzonspor2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W18 Mar 26A · Eyüpspor1–01
- D30 Jan 26A · Antalyaspor1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Besiktas32 games · scored 56 · conceded 36
13
3
0-15
7
6
16-30
11
6
31-45
9
8
46-60
7
5
61-75
9
8
76-90
Trabzonspor32 games · scored 59 · conceded 35
6
2
0-15
8
9
16-30
10
10
31-45
15
4
46-60
7
3
61-75
13
7
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
