Bologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Bologna. Bologna had 5.9 days of rest, AS Roma 6.9 and had to travel 305 km.
Away travel305 kmRest days5.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 1
Bologna38%
Draw29%
AS Roma33%
Bologna35%
Draw27%
AS Roma38%
Bologna38%
Draw29%
AS Roma33%
Bologna32%
Draw29%
AS Roma40%
Bologna39%
Draw28%
AS Roma33%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 73
Team strength
Bologna
AS Roma
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
35
AttackIn forecast
72
48
DefenceIn forecast
75
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BolognaAS Roma
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.39
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
73%
Scored inContext
79%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
12.73
ShotsContext
12.88
3.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.42
29%
On target shareContext
34%
8.06
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
62%
Box shareContext
71%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.42
OffsidesContext
2.08
9.97
Shots allowedContext
9.91
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.94
2.97
BlocksContext
2.74
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
67%
Save rateContext
77%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
432
PassesContext
479
360
Accurate passesContext
401
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.64
FoulsContext
13.70
14.09
Fouls sufferedContext
13.88
1.79
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.66
70%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.20
ShotsContext
12.50
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
30%
On target shareContext
30%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.11
61%
Box shareContext
80%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.63
11.40
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
3.44
BlocksContext
2.78
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
54%
Save rateContext
59%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
454
PassesContext
474
382
Accurate passesContext
391
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.81
13.70
FoulsContext
13.00
14.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,222 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
AS Roma
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel305 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Apr | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 305 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,222 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 9.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
13F. Ravaglia(G)
14T. Heggem
26J. Lucumí
5E. Helland
33Juan Miranda
19L. Ferguson
8R. Freuler
17João Mário
11J. Rowe
7R. Orsolini
9S. Castro
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
43Wesley
61N. Pisilli
4B. Cristante
19M. Çelik
8N. El Aynaoui
18M. Soulé
14D. Malen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- AS Roma-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
1.25points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.13
AS Roma · Away
1.38points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-8
- Scored
- 1.19
- Conceded
- 1.19
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Bologna | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | D 3–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Lecce | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Cremonese | W 2–1 AL 1–3 H | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Lazio | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Sassuolo | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Verona | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Pisa | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Udinese | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Torino | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Parma | L 0–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Genoa | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Fiorentina | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Como | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Inter | L 1–3 A | L 2–5 AL 0–1 H |
| Napoli | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 48 of 96 · 1.50 per game | 55 of 96 · 1.72 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Bologna wins4 draws2 AS Roma wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.10
Over 2.540%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 40%
- 19 Mar 2026AS Roma3–4Bologna
- 12 Mar 2026Bologna1–1AS Roma
- 23 Aug 2025AS Roma1–0Bologna
- 12 Jan 2025Bologna2–2AS Roma
- 10 Nov 2024AS Roma2–3Bologna
- 22 Apr 2024AS Roma1–3Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 1.39 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.45 | 2.27 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 36% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 36% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 21% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Bologna | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.70 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.31 | 4.91 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.31 | 3.27 | |
| Match total | 8.62 | 8.18 | 8.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 15/32 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 12/32 | 30% 10/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 10/32 | 24% 8/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.97 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 2.15 | |
| Match total | 4.06 | 4.09 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 18/33 | 61% 20/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 15/33 | 39% 13/33 | |
| Bologna | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 9.40 | 8.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 73 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.89league 3.70
Red cards0.18league 0.19
Cards 5+45%league 35%
Fouls26.1league 24.8
Penalties0.38league 0.30
Home wins34%league 40%
Bologna5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L7 Jan 26H · Atalanta0–20
- W29 Mar 25A · Venezia1–01
- D6 Oct 24H · Parma0–01
- D27 Aug 23A · Juventus1–11
- L9 Jan 23H · Atalanta1–23
AS Roma10 with this referee
Record7-2-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against6 · 1
Reds1
- W22 Feb 26H · Cremonese3–01
- W29 Dec 25H · Genoa3–10
- W25 May 25A · Torino2–01
- W9 Mar 25A · Empoli1–00
- W22 Dec 24H · Parma5–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna33 games · scored 42 · conceded 39
2
4
0-15
7
2
16-30
8
7
31-45
11
8
46-60
6
10
61-75
8
8
76-90
AS Roma33 games · scored 46 · conceded 29
6
5
0-15
7
16-30
7
5
31-45
7
7
46-60
12
3
61-75
7
9
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 19 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
7
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
