Bologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were slight favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 42). Bologna had 6.9 days of rest, Como 6 and had to travel 229 km.
Away travel229 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Bologna50%
Draw26%
Como23%
Bologna51%
Draw25%
Como23%
Bologna50%
Draw26%
Como23%
Bologna43%
Draw27%
Como29%
Bologna51%
Draw25%
Como23%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 66
Team strength
Bologna
Como
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
35
AttackIn forecast
72
48
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BolognaComo
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.80
ShotsContext
15.40
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
28%
On target shareContext
33%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
62%
Box shareContext
61%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.57
7.60
Shots allowedContext
9.70
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.00
BlocksContext
2.88
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
69%
Save rateContext
75%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
429
PassesContext
505
356
Accurate passesContext
440
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.09
12.90
FoulsContext
12.30
17.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km609 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel229 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 229 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 609 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.1 | 16.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
22C. Lykogiannis
14T. Heggem
41M. Vitík
20N. Zortea
6N. Moro
8R. Freuler
28N. Cambiaghi
80G. Fabbian
7R. Orsolini
9S. Castro
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
77I. Van der Brempt
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
17Jesús Rodríguez
10N. Paz
31M. Vojvoda
11A. Douvikas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Como+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
No home games yet this season.
Como · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Bologna wins1 draws0 Como wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 1 Feb 2025Bologna2–0Como
- 14 Sep 2024Como2–2Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Bologna | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | — | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | — | |
| Match total | 6.00 | — | 8.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | — | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | — | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 5.00 | 3.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Bologna | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 8.11 | 8.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.50 | 3.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.29league 3.58
Red cards0.21league 0.17
Cards 5+27%league 50%
Fouls24.9league 24.5
Penalties0.23league 0.17
Home wins26%league 42%
Bologna5 with this referee
Record2-3-0
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D4 May 25H · Juventus1–11
- D19 Oct 24A · Genoa2–20
- D3 Dec 23A · Lecce1–12
- W22 Oct 23H · Frosinone2–12
- W27 Apr 22H · Inter2–11
Como1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D8 Dec 24A · Venezia2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna1 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Como1 games · scored 2 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Como10 games · scored 16 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
