Serie A Gameweek 21 Sun, Jan 18 2026 · 14:00 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna
Bologna
1–2 Full time · HT 0–2 xG 1.12 – 1.64
Fiorentina
  • G. Fabbian 88’
  • 19’ R. Mandragora
  • 45’ R. Piccoli
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Fiorentina beat Bologna

Bologna entered as favourites, but Fiorentina won 2–1 through goals from Mandragora and Piccoli. Bologna replied through a Fabbian goal. Fiorentina finished with the higher xG (1.64 vs 1.12). On the chances created, Bologna deserved more: 1.0 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Bologna48%
Draw27%
Fiorentina ✓25%

Model vs reality

Bologna goals
1
Model 1.53 · xG 1.12
Fiorentina goals
2
Model 1.05 · xG 1.64
Total goals
3
Model 2.58 · xG 2.76
Score 1–2
6%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 48%
Both scored
Yes
Model 52%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchR. MandragoraFiorentina · 1 goal
8.2
  • RefereeDaniele Doveri
  • VenueStadio Renato Dall’Ara
  • Table before kick-offBologna 8th · Fiorentina 18th

Timeline

  1. VAR C. NdourGoal Disallowed - offside
    17’
  2. R. Mandragora 0–1Assist A. Guðmundsson
    19’
  3. E. HolmYellow card · Foul
    38’
  4. R. Piccoli 0–2
    45’
  5. Half time · 0–2
  6. ⇄ G. FabbianFor J. Odgaard
    46’
  7. ⇄ J. RoweFor R. Orsolini
    46’
  8. ⇄ N. ZorteaFor E. Holm
    46’
  9. ⇄ N. MoroFor R. Freuler
    46’
  10. ⇄ M. BrescianiniFor R. Mandragora
    72’
  11. ⇄ M. SolomonFor A. Guðmundsson
    72’
  12. ⇄ S. SohmFor C. Ndour
    72’
  13. ⇄ L. FergusonFor T. Pobega
    72’
  14. Juan MirandaYellow card
    77’
  15. ⇄ N. FortiniFor F. Parisi
    80’
  16. G. Fabbian 1–2Assist J. Rowe
    88’
  17. L. FergusonYellow card · Roughing
    90’
  18. ⇄ L. RanieriFor N. Fagioli
    90+4’
  19. Full time · 1–2

Team stats

Bologna15 shots · 11 in box, 4 outside
Fiorentina11 shots · 9 in box, 2 outside
BolognaFiorentina
61% Possession 39%
1.12 Expected goals (xG) 1.64
1.03 Expected points (xPts) 1.73
15 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 4
6 Shots off target 4
6 Blocked shots 3
11 Shots inside the box 9
4 Shots outside the box 2
509 Passes 349
88% Pass accuracy 83%
6 Corners 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
13 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 2
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
6.72 Team rating 6.96

Line-ups

Bologna 4-2-3-1

136.9 F. Ravaglia(G)
337.5 Juan Miranda 146.2 T. Heggem 166.6 N. Casale 26.2 E. Holm ↓46’
86.2 R. Freuler ↓46’ 46.2 T. Pobega ↓72’
286.9 N. Cambiaghi 216.3 J. Odgaard ↓46’ 76.5 R. Orsolini ↓46’
96.3 S. Castro
  • 13F. Ravaglia (G)6.9
  • 33Juan Miranda7.5
  • 14T. Heggem6.2
  • 16N. Casale6.6
  • 2E. Holm↓46’6.2
  • 8R. Freuler↓46’6.2
  • 4T. Pobega↓72’6.2
  • 28N. Cambiaghi6.9
  • 21J. Odgaard↓46’6.3
  • 7R. Orsolini↓46’6.5
  • 9S. Castro6.3

Substitutes used

  • 20N. Zortea↑46’6.7
  • 6N. Moro↑46’7.2
  • 80G. Fabbian↑46’7.9
  • 11J. RoweA↑46’7.6
  • 19L. Ferguson↑72’6.5

Unused: Ł. Skorupski, M. Pessina, C. Lykogiannis, M. Vitík, L. De Silvestri, B. Domínguez, I. Sulemana, T. Dallinga, C. Immobile

Fiorentina 4-3-3

437.3 David de Gea(G)
216.7 R. Gosens 56.9 M. Pongračić 156.3 P. Comuzzo 26.5 Dodô
276.9 C. Ndour ↓72’ 446.6 N. Fagioli ↓90’ 88.2★ R. Mandragora ↓72’
107.3 A. Guðmundsson A↓72’ 917.7 R. Piccoli 656.7 F. Parisi ↓80’
  • 43David de Gea (G)7.3
  • 21R. Gosens6.7
  • 5M. Pongračić6.9
  • 15P. Comuzzo6.3
  • 2Dodô6.5
  • 27C. Ndour↓72’6.9
  • 44N. Fagioli↓90’6.6
  • 8R. Mandragora ★↓72’8.2
  • 10A. GuðmundssonA↓72’7.3
  • 91R. Piccoli7.7
  • 65F. Parisi↓80’6.7

Substitutes used

  • 6L. Ranieri↑90’
  • 4M. Brescianini↑72’6.5
  • 7S. Sohm↑72’6.6
  • 19M. Solomon↑72’6.9
  • 29N. Fortini↑80’6.2

Unused: O. Christensen, L. Lezzerini, E. Kouadio, Luís Balbo, E. Košpo, H. Nicolussi, J. Fazzini, Riccardo Braschi

Player stats

Top rated
R. MandragoraFiorentina8.2
2nd
G. FabbianBologna7.9
3rd
R. PiccoliFiorentina7.7

Bologna

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
F. Ravaglia G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 88% 41 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
Juan Miranda D 90 0 0 0 (0) 4 84% 58 1 0 0/0 1/0 7.5
T. Heggem D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 56 0 1 0/1 0/0 6.2
N. Casale D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 98% 55 0 0 0/0 1/1 6.6
E. Holm D 46 0 0 1 (0) 0 73% 30 2 1 0/0 1/0 6.2
R. Freuler M 46 0 0 0 (0) 1 97% 32 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2
T. Pobega M 72 0 0 0 (0) 0 81% 27 4 0 0/1 3/0 6.2
N. Cambiaghi F 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 30 4 0 0/0 3/2 6.9
J. Odgaard F 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 10 0 0 0/0 0/4 6.3
R. Orsolini F 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 85% 13 1 0 0/1 0/1 6.5
S. Castro F 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 81% 16 1 0 1/2 0/2 6.3
N. Zortea M 44 0 0 0 (0) 2 88% 34 0 0 1/2 0/0 6.7
N. Moro M 44 0 0 1 (0) 0 94% 51 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.2
G. Fabbian M 44 1 0 2 (2) 0 75% 12 0 0 1/1 1/1 7.9
J. Rowe F 44 0 1 2 (1) 1 95% 19 2 0 2/2 1/1 7.6
L. Ferguson M 18 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 15 0 0 0/0 2/0 6.5

Fiorentina

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
David de Gea G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 58% 33 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.3
R. Gosens D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 24 4 0 0/0 2/0 6.7
M. Pongračić D 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 98% 49 0 1 1/1 3/2 6.9
P. Comuzzo D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 85% 34 3 2 0/1 2/0 6.3
Dodô D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 64% 42 1 1 1/5 2/0 6.5
C. Ndour M 72 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 27 0 0 0/1 2/1 6.9
N. Fagioli M 90 0 0 1 (1) 1 97% 39 0 1 3/3 0/0 6.6
R. Mandragora M 72 1 0 2 (1) 3 84% 19 1 0 0/0 0/4 8.2
A. Guðmundsson F 72 0 1 0 (0) 3 92% 24 0 0 1/1 1/1 7.3
R. Piccoli F 90 1 0 2 (1) 0 71% 17 1 0 0/0 0/1 7.7
F. Parisi D 80 0 0 1 (0) 2 84% 25 0 1 1/5 0/2 6.7
L. Ranieri D 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
M. Brescianini M 18 0 0 0 (0) 1 67% 3 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.5
S. Sohm M 18 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 3 0 2 0/0 0/0 6.6
M. Solomon F 18 0 0 1 (0) 0 100% 3 0 0 1/1 0/2 6.9
N. Fortini D 10 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.