Bologna vs Fiorentina – 18 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 21 Sun, Jan 18 · 14:00 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna

Bologna 8th · 30 pts · 20 played DLLDW

1–2Full time

Fiorentina 18th · 14 pts · 20 played WLWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bologna were slight favourites.

Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 42). Bologna come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Bologna had 2.9 days of rest, Fiorentina 7 and had to travel 80 km.

Away travel80 kmRest days2.9 · 7Matches / 14d4 · 3

Bologna48%

Draw27%

Fiorentina25%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.05

Bologna53%

Draw25%

Fiorentina22%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.04

Bologna48%

Draw27%

Fiorentina25%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.03

Bologna40%

Draw28%

Fiorentina32%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.18

Bologna52%

Draw25%

Fiorentina23%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.05

Over 2.5 48% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bologna)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 76

Team strength

Bologna

Fiorentina

57 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

35 AttackIn forecast 42

48 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bologna

Fiorentina

1.45 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.05

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.55

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.44

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.39

75% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 15%

12.80 ShotsContext 13.55

4.21 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.55

31% On target shareContext 26%

8.32 Shots in the boxContext 8.75

63% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.33

10.60 Shots allowedContext 12.90

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.19 BlocksContext 3.10

2.94 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

73% Save rateContext 65%

55% PossessionIn forecast 53%

421 PassesContext 418

347 Accurate passesContext 352

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.77

13.70 FoulsContext 12.60

14.45 Fouls sufferedContext 15.90

1.95 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.35

80% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

15.00 ShotsContext 16.40

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

33% On target shareContext 30%

10.89 Shots in the boxContext 11.40

66% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.13

11.10 Shots allowedContext 13.20

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.00 BlocksContext 3.80

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

70% Save rateContext 65%

53% PossessionIn forecast 56%

424 PassesContext 473

347 Accurate passesContext 410

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.87

13.10 FoulsContext 11.40

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bologna

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel0 km1,077 km in 14d

Schedule load43%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fiorentina

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel80 km468 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bologna	Fiorentina
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	High · 43	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	Yes	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Jan	7Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	80 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,077 km	468 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 4 / 5	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13F. Ravaglia(G)

33Juan Miranda 14T. Heggem 16N. Casale 2E. Holm

8R. Freuler 4T. Pobega

28N. Cambiaghi 21J. Odgaard 7R. Orsolini

9S. Castro

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

4-3-3

43David de Gea(G)

21R. Gosens 5M. Pongračić 15P. Comuzzo 2Dodô

27C. Ndour 44N. Fagioli 8R. Mandragora

10A. Guðmundsson 91R. Piccoli 65F. Parisi

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bologna Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fiorentina Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bologna-0.6 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Fiorentina+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Bologna · Home 1.56points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-3
Scored: 1.22
Conceded: 0.89

Fiorentina · Away 0.50points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 0-5-5
Scored: 0.70
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Bologna	Fiorentina
Verona	W 3–2 A	L 1–2 H
Como	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 1–2 H
Atalanta	L 0–2 H	L 0–2 A
Inter	L 1–3 A	L 0–3 A
Sassuolo	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 A
Juventus	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 H
Lazio	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 A
Cremonese	L 1–3 H	W 1–0 H
Udinese	W 3–0 A	W 5–1 H
Napoli	W 2–0 H	L 1–3 H
Parma	W 3–1 A	L 0–1 A
Torino	D 0–0 H	D 0–0 A
Cagliari	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 A
Pisa	W 4–0 H	D 0–0 A
Lecce	D 2–2 A	L 0–1 H
Genoa	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 A
AC Milan	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
AS Roma	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Points	29 of 57 · 1.53 per game	13 of 57 · 0.68 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 Bologna wins1 draws4 Fiorentina wins

Goals per game1.56 – 1.44 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets22% · 11%

26 Oct 2025Fiorentina2–2Bologna
18 May 2025Fiorentina3–2Bologna
15 Dec 2024Bologna1–0Fiorentina
14 Feb 2024Bologna2–0Fiorentina
12 Nov 2023Fiorentina2–1Bologna
5 Feb 2023Fiorentina1–2Bologna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bologna	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	1.45	1.05
Conceded per game	1.10	1.55
Match goals	2.55	2.60	2.58
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	45%	55%	48%
Over 3.5	35%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	65%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	15%
Failed to score	25%	30%
Games	20	20

	Bologna	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.40
Conceded per game	1.60	1.50
Match goals	3.00	2.90	2.58
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bologna	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	4.75	4.65
Corners conceded	4.20	4.60
Match total	8.95	9.25	8.84
Over 8.5	55% 11/20	65% 13/20
Over 9.5	40% 8/20	60% 12/20
Over 10.5	30% 6/20	30% 6/20
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.50
Opponent cards	2.50	2.30
Match total	4.60	4.80	3.96
Over 3.5	70% 14/20	75% 15/20
Over 4.5	60% 12/20	60% 12/20

	Bologna	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	4.90
Corners conceded	5.00	5.10
Match total	9.44	10.00	8.84
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.70
Opponent cards	2.30	2.50
Match total	4.20	5.20	3.96
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 76 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.33league 3.82

Red cards0.21league 0.17

Cards 5+28%league 37%

Fouls24.8league 25.7

Penalties0.22league 0.30

Home wins24%league 37%

Bologna6 with this referee

Record3-3-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 2

W30 Aug 25H · Como1–04
D4 May 25H · Juventus1–11
D19 Oct 24A · Genoa2–20
D3 Dec 23A · Lecce1–12
W22 Oct 23H · Frosinone2–12

Fiorentina6 with this referee

Record3-3-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

D22 Nov 25H · Juventus1–13
W30 Mar 25H · Atalanta1–00
W6 Feb 25H · Inter3–01
D3 Sep 22H · Juventus1–11
W20 Feb 22H · Atalanta1–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.