Bologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were slight favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Bologna. Bologna had 6 days of rest, Inter 6.1 and had to travel 201 km.
Away travel201 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bologna26%
Draw27%
Inter47%
Bologna23%
Draw25%
Inter52%
Bologna27%
Draw27%
Inter46%
Bologna21%
Draw25%
Inter54%
Bologna27%
Draw26%
Inter47%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Bonacina
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 14
Team strength
Bologna
Inter
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
35
AttackIn forecast
91
48
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BolognaInter
1.24
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.32
1.16
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
70%
Scored inContext
95%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
49%
12.51
ShotsContext
16.92
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.86
29%
On target shareContext
35%
7.86
Shots in the boxContext
12.08
62%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.91
9.92
Shots allowedContext
8.92
3.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.38
3.03
BlocksContext
2.87
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.53
67%
Save rateContext
75%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
437
PassesContext
539
364
Accurate passesContext
474
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.04
12.38
FoulsContext
12.81
13.97
Fouls sufferedContext
10.68
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.66
50%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.70
ShotsContext
13.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
31%
On target shareContext
35%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
62%
Box shareContext
75%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
2.88
OffsidesContext
1.63
9.60
Shots allowedContext
11.30
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.56
BlocksContext
3.11
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
53%
Save rateContext
69%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
478
PassesContext
553
411
Accurate passesContext
492
86%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.98
12.30
FoulsContext
11.30
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,315 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Inter
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel201 km957 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 201 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,315 km | 957 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 93 | 91 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
5E. Helland
29L. De Silvestri
4T. Pobega
8R. Freuler
19L. Ferguson
11J. Rowe
9S. Castro
10F. Bernardeschi
Inter
Confirmed XI
13Josep Martínez(G)
30Carlos Augusto
6S. de Vrij
31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco
7P. Zieliński
8P. Sučić
23N. Barella
17A. Diouf
10L. Martínez
94F. Esposito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Inter
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Inter+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
1.17points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-9
- Scored
- 0.89
- Conceded
- 1.11
Inter · Away
2.28points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 13-2-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.89
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Bologna | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Napoli | W 3–2 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Cagliari | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A | W 5–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Juventus | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | W 3–2 HL 3–4 A |
| Lecce | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Cremonese | W 2–1 AL 1–3 H | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Lazio | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Sassuolo | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Verona | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | W 6–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Udinese | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Torino | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H |
| Parma | L 0–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–0 HW 2–0 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Genoa | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Fiorentina | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Como | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 4–3 AW 4–0 H |
| Points | 55 of 108 · 1.53 per game | 83 of 108 · 2.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Bologna wins2 draws4 Inter wins
Goals per game1.22 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 11%
- 4 Jan 2026Inter3–1Bologna
- 20 Apr 2025Bologna1–0Inter
- 15 Jan 2025Inter2–2Bologna
- 9 Mar 2024Bologna0–1Inter
- 7 Oct 2023Inter2–2Bologna
- 26 Feb 2023Bologna1–0Inter
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.24 | 2.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.16 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.41 | 3.19 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 54% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 46% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 49% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 5% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Bologna | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.36 | 6.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.28 | 2.84 | |
| Match total | 8.64 | 8.98 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 17/36 | 59% 22/37 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 13/36 | 51% 19/37 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 11/36 | 43% 16/37 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.95 | 1.62 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.03 | 1.76 | |
| Match total | 3.98 | 3.38 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 51% 19/37 | 32% 12/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 16/37 | 19% 7/37 | |
| Bologna | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 7.90 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.70 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Bonacina 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.68
Red cards0.21league 0.19
Cards 5+21%league 34%
Fouls24.2league 24.7
Penalties0.21league 0.28
Home wins43%league 39%
Bologna2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W15 Mar 26A · Sassuolo1–02
- W2 Nov 25A · Parma3–12
Inter1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 May 26H · Parma2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna37 games · scored 46 · conceded 43
3
5
0-15
7
2
16-30
9
9
31-45
11
9
46-60
6
10
61-75
10
8
76-90
Inter37 games · scored 86 · conceded 32
12
2
0-15
10
4
16-30
14
8
31-45
15
2
46-60
15
4
61-75
20
12
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
3
0-15
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
7
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
