Bologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were slight favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 44). Absences weigh more on Bologna. Bologna had 5.3 days of rest, Red Bull Salzburg 21.1 and had to travel 387 km.
Away travel387 kmRest days5.3 · 21.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Bologna55%
Draw24%
Red Bull Salzburg21%
Bologna55%
Draw24%
Red Bull Salzburg21%
Bologna56%
Draw23%
Red Bull Salzburg21%
Bologna47%
Draw25%
Red Bull Salzburg27%
Bologna54%
Draw25%
Red Bull Salzburg21%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
No weather data yet
RefereeIgor Pajač
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 20
Team strength
Bologna
Red Bull Salzburg
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
37
35
AttackIn forecast
36
48
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRed Bull Salzburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BolognaRed Bull Salzburg
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
50%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
15.50
ShotsContext
13.75
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
32%
On target shareContext
33%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
64%
Box shareContext
55%
5%
ConversionContext
7%
3.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.50
Shots allowedContext
12.50
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.00
BlocksContext
2.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
405
PassesContext
417
337
Accurate passesContext
345
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.81
13.75
FoulsContext
11.50
15.75
Fouls sufferedContext
9.25
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.09
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.65
80%
Scored inContext
90%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.70
ShotsContext
12.80
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
33%
On target shareContext
41%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
60%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.10
8.30
Shots allowedContext
13.80
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.86
BlocksContext
2.90
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
78%
Save rateContext
71%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
424
PassesContext
436
355
Accurate passesContext
357
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.94
14.10
FoulsContext
10.60
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km459 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Red Bull Salzburg
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel387 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
Red Bull Salzburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 21.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 387 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 459 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
13F. Ravaglia(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
14T. Heggem
20N. Zortea
4T. Pobega
19L. Ferguson
10F. Bernardeschi
21J. Odgaard
7R. Orsolini
24T. Dallinga
Red Bull Salzburg
Confirmed XI
1A. Schlager(G)
3A. Terzić
2J. Rasmussen
23J. Gadou
22S. Lainer
7Clement Bischoff
5S. Diabaté
18M. Bidstrup
49M. Yeo
11Y. Vertessen
20E. Baidoo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Red Bull Salzburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Red Bull Salzburg+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Red Bull Salzburg · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | Red Bull Salzburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 25% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Bologna | Red Bull Salzburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 25% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | Red Bull Salzburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 12.25 | 6.50 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 4/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.25 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 5.75 | 3.00 | 4.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 4/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Bologna | Red Bull Salzburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 8.00 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.00 | 4.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Igor Pajač 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.45league 4.06
Red cards0.10league 0.16
Cards 5+35%league 41%
Fouls23.0league 24.7
Penalties0.30league 0.40
Home wins55%league 49%
BolognaNo previous matches with this referee.
Red Bull SalzburgNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna4 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
76-90
Red Bull Salzburg4 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 19 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Red Bull Salzburg10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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