Bologna vs Sassuolo – 6 Sep 2026

Serie A Gameweek 3 Sun, Sep 6 · 17:00 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna

Bologna 17th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

2–2Full time

Sassuolo 11th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bologna were slight favourites.

Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sassuolo. Bologna had 5.9 days of rest, Sassuolo 8 and had to travel 60 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel60 kmRest days5.9 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Bologna54%

Draw24%

Sassuolo23%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.04

Bologna54%

Draw24%

Sassuolo22%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

Bologna54%

Draw24%

Sassuolo23%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.04

Bologna46%

Draw25%

Sassuolo29%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.17

Bologna53%

Draw24%

Sassuolo23%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.04

Over 2.5 52% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bologna)

32°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 13 km/h
Humidity 38%

Heat stress

Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 76

Team strength

Bologna

Sassuolo

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

35 AttackIn forecast 41

48 DefenceIn forecast 32

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bologna

Sassuolo

0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 1.91

0.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

-1.54 Goals minus xGContext -0.41

0% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.00 ShotsContext 20.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.50

27% On target shareContext 37%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

71% Box shareContext 56%

0% ConversionContext 7%

3.00 OffsidesContext 3.00

8.00 Shots allowedContext 12.00

2.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

2.00 BlocksContext 3.00

1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

60% Save rateContext 73%

59% PossessionIn forecast 45%

564 PassesContext 452

510 Accurate passesContext 404

90% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.93

15.50 FoulsContext 11.00

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

40% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.30 ShotsContext 13.30

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

29% On target shareContext 34%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

62% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.75

9.80 Shots allowedContext 13.00

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

3.20 BlocksContext 3.00

1.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

52% Save rateContext 69%

55% PossessionIn forecast 50%

465 PassesContext 441

400 Accurate passesContext 383

86% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.86

12.40 FoulsContext 11.70

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bologna LL

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km375 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 29 · 0 pts vs 2.5 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

L31 AugA · Atalanta0–11.1 xPts
L24 AugH · Lazio0–11.6 xPts

Sassuolo LW

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel60 km268 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 52 · 3 pts vs 2.8 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected

W29 AugH · Torino2–11.7 xPts
L23 AugA · Atalanta1–20.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bologna	Sassuolo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Serie A 2026-2027, 31 Aug	8Serie A 2026-2027, 29 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	60 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	375 km	268 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

23Abdel Rahim 3A. Theate 14T. Heggem 2E. Holm

4T. Pobega 19L. Ferguson

28N. Cambiaghi 21J. Odgaard 10F. Bernardeschi

91R. Piccoli

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

49A. Murić(G)

3J. Doig 16F. Leysen 21J. Idzes 46S. Cinquegrano

35L. Lipani 18N. Matić 17V. Adžić

45A. Laurienté 9K. Bowie 7C. Volpato

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bologna Absences are shown before kick-off

Sassuolo Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bologna-0.4 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Sassuolo+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Bologna · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Sassuolo · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Bologna	Sassuolo
Atalanta	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Bologna wins3 draws1 Sassuolo wins

Goals per game1.88 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored63% Clean sheets38% · 0%

15 Mar 2026Sassuolo0–1Bologna
28 Dec 2025Bologna1–1Sassuolo
3 Feb 2024Bologna4–2Sassuolo
28 Oct 2023Sassuolo1–1Bologna
8 May 2023Sassuolo1–1Bologna
12 Nov 2022Bologna3–0Sassuolo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bologna	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.50
Conceded per game	1.00	1.50
Match goals	1.00	3.00	2.77
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	2	2

	Bologna	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.30
Conceded per game	1.50	1.30
Match goals	2.40	2.60	2.77
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	70%	52%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	20%	70%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bologna	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.00
Corners conceded	3.50	3.50
Match total	8.50	7.50	8.85
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.50
Opponent cards	2.50	0.50
Match total	4.50	2.00	3.12
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Bologna	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	3.10
Corners conceded	4.30	4.80
Match total	8.40	7.90	8.85
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	2.10
Opponent cards	1.60	2.30
Match total	2.80	4.40	3.12
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 76 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.87league 3.12

Red cards0.17league 0.00

Cards 5+43%league 15%

Fouls26.0league 22.8

Penalties0.37league 0.00

Home wins33%league 42%

Bologna6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 0

L25 Apr 26H · AS Roma0–20
L7 Jan 26H · Atalanta0–20
W29 Mar 25A · Venezia1–01
D6 Oct 24H · Parma0–01
D27 Aug 23A · Juventus1–11

Sassuolo1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 5.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L21 Oct 23H · Lazio0–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.