Bologna vs Torino – 19 Sep 2026

Serie A Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna

Bologna 17th · 1 pts · 4 played LLDL

1–1Full time

Torino 15th · 3 pts · 4 played LLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bologna were slight favourites.

Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bologna. Bologna had 5.9 days of rest, Torino 4.9 and had to travel 295 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel295 kmRest days5.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Bologna54%

Draw24%

Torino22%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.01

Bologna53%

Draw24%

Torino23%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.05

Bologna55%

Draw23%

Torino22%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.01

Bologna47%

Draw25%

Torino28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.13

Bologna54%

Draw24%

Torino22%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.00

Over 2.5 52% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bologna)

27°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 50%

Warm

Referee · ItalyMarco Guida

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 91

Team strength

Bologna

Torino

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

35 AttackIn forecast 39

48 DefenceIn forecast 47

18 Form indexContext 31

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bologna

Torino

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81

-0.61 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

25% Scored inContext 75%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.00 ShotsContext 7.75

3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

27% On target shareContext 39%

9.25 Shots in the boxContext 5.00

62% Box shareContext 61%

4% ConversionContext 13%

3.00 OffsidesContext —

11.75 Shots allowedContext 16.50

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

4.25 BlocksContext 3.75

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

71% Save rateContext 64%

55% PossessionIn forecast 52%

518 PassesContext 490

470 Accurate passesContext 422

91% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.75

13.50 FoulsContext 8.75

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

40% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.70 ShotsContext 9.50

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.89

28% On target shareContext 27%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 5.90

60% Box shareContext 59%

8% ConversionContext 12%

2.43 OffsidesContext 1.40

11.00 Shots allowedContext 15.30

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

3.80 BlocksContext 4.00

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

60% Save rateContext 65%

54% PossessionIn forecast 47%

473 PassesContext 421

412 Accurate passesContext 355

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.50 FoulsContext 10.70

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bologna LLDL

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km941 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 18 · 1 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · -4.6 vs expected

L13 SepA · Napoli0–11.0 xPts
D6 SepH · Sassuolo2–21.8 xPts
L31 AugA · Atalanta0–11.1 xPts
L24 AugH · Lazio0–11.6 xPts

Torino LLWL

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel295 km634 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 31 · 3 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

L14 SepH · AS Roma0–20.7 xPts
W5 SepA · Fiorentina2–11.1 xPts
L29 AugA · Sassuolo1–21.1 xPts
L23 AugH · AC Milan1–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bologna	Torino
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Serie A 2026-2027, 13 Sep	4.9Serie A 2026-2027, 14 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	295 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	941 km	634 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	22	23.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bologna Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

3A. Theate 14T. Heggem 5E. Helland

33Juan Miranda 4T. Pobega 19L. Ferguson 20N. Zortea

28N. Cambiaghi 91R. Piccoli 10F. Bernardeschi

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Torino Confirmed XI

3-5-2

20Lucas Perri(G)

23Saúl Coco 44A. Ismajli 5E. Cömert

77Alessio Cacciamani 28K. Fitz-Jim 8R. Mandragora 21Daniel Bragança 29N. Fortini

10N. Vlašić 18G. Simeone

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bologna Absences are shown before kick-off

Torino Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bologna-0.6 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Torino+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Bologna · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.50

Torino · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Bologna	Torino
Sassuolo	D 2–2 H	L 1–2 A
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 Bologna wins3 draws2 Torino wins

Goals per game1.20 – 0.70 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets50% · 40%

15 Feb 2026Torino1–2Bologna
29 Oct 2025Bologna0–0Torino
14 Feb 2025Bologna3–2Torino
21 Dec 2024Torino0–2Bologna
3 May 2024Torino0–0Bologna
27 Nov 2023Bologna2–0Torino

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bologna	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.00
Conceded per game	1.25	1.75
Match goals	1.75	2.75	2.74
Over 1.5	25%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	75%	52%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	25%	75%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	75%	25%
Games	4	4

	Bologna	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.10
Conceded per game	1.40	1.60
Match goals	2.30	2.70	2.74
Over 1.5	50%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	70%	52%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	70%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	60%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bologna	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	6.67	2.75
Corners conceded	4.67	4.75
Match total	11.34	7.50	9.48
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	25% 1/4
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	0% 0/4
Over 10.5	67% 2/3	0% 0/4
Cards
Cards	2.00	0.25
Opponent cards	1.50	1.50
Match total	3.50	1.75	3.20
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	25% 1/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	0% 0/4

	Bologna	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	4.56	3.44
Corners conceded	4.44	4.78
Match total	9.00	8.22	9.48
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.20
Opponent cards	1.50	1.40
Match total	3.00	2.60	3.20
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 91 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.91league 3.12

Red cards0.14league 0.02

Cards 5+38%league 20%

Fouls23.7league 22.2

Penalties0.34league 0.07

Home wins43%league 44%

Bologna3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

L4 Jan 26A · Inter1–33
W17 Dec 23H · AS Roma2–04
D7 Oct 23A · Inter2–23

Torino5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L22 Feb 26A · Genoa0–32
D24 Sep 23H · AS Roma1–10
W27 May 23A · Spezia4–02
D13 Mar 22H · Inter1–11
L22 Dec 21A · Inter0–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.