Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
3rd · 25 pts · 12 played
WWDDW
2–0Full time
1899 Hoffenheim
5th · 23 pts · 12 played
WWWDW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 53). Borussia Dortmund had 8 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 8.1 and had to travel 271 km.
Away travel271 kmRest days8 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Borussia Dortmund68%
Draw19%
1899 Hoffenheim13%
Borussia Dortmund66%
Draw21%
1899 Hoffenheim14%
Borussia Dortmund68%
Draw19%
1899 Hoffenheim13%
Borussia Dortmund60%
Draw21%
1899 Hoffenheim18%
Borussia Dortmund66%
Draw20%
1899 Hoffenheim14%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 61
Team strength
Borussia Dortmund1899 Hoffenheim
83
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
69
AttackIn forecast
46
80
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia Dortmund1899 Hoffenheim
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.08
0.92
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
100%
Scored inContext
92%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
12.50
ShotsContext
13.33
4.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.58
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.82
70%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.30
9.75
Shots allowedContext
12.17
3.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
2.64
BlocksContext
3.92
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
74%
Save rateContext
76%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
504
PassesContext
452
431
Accurate passesContext
363
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.17
FoulsContext
14.67
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
100%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.60
ShotsContext
13.40
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
33%
On target shareContext
34%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.22
67%
Box shareContext
73%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.10
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.33
BlocksContext
4.20
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
76%
Save rateContext
79%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
486
PassesContext
457
414
Accurate passesContext
365
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.40
FoulsContext
14.50
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km127 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel271 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 271 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 127 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
28A. Anselmino
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
20M. Sabitzer
2Yan Couto
10J. Brandt
27K. Adeyemi
9S. Guirassy
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
6G. Prömel
11F. Asllani
19T. Lemperle
29B. Toure
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-0
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 0.80
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
2.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–2 A | L 1–4 H |
| RB Leipzig | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Union Berlin | W 3–0 H | W 4–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 3–3 A | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 23 of 30 · 2.30 per game | 22 of 30 · 2.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 Borussia Dortmund wins1 draws1 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game2.13 – 1.38
Over 2.563%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 26 Apr 20251899 Hoffenheim2–3Borussia Dortmund
- 15 Dec 2024Borussia Dortmund1–11899 Hoffenheim
- 25 Feb 2024Borussia Dortmund2–31899 Hoffenheim
- 29 Sep 20231899 Hoffenheim1–3Borussia Dortmund
- 25 Feb 20231899 Hoffenheim0–1Borussia Dortmund
- 2 Sep 2022Borussia Dortmund1–01899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 2.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.92 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.50 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 75% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 8% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.58 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.58 | 10.83 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 6/12 | 92% 11/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 5/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 3/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.92 | 1.42 | |
| Match total | 3.84 | 3.34 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 8/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 5/12 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 11.10 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.30 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.96
Red cards0.18league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 42%
Fouls22.7league 21.4
Penalties0.26league 0.34
Home wins49%league 46%
Borussia Dortmund6 with this referee
Record3-0-3
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds3
- L9 Nov 24A · FSV Mainz 051–32
- L22 Sep 24A · VfB Stuttgart1–53
- W13 Apr 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–14
- W29 Sep 23A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–15
- L20 Aug 22H · Werder Bremen2–34
1899 Hoffenheim7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.1
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W1 Mar 25A · VfL Bochum1–01
- L31 Aug 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–33
- W12 May 24A · SV Darmstadt 986–00
- D4 Feb 24A · VfL Wolfsburg2–23
- L29 Sep 23H · Borussia Dortmund1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund12 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
9
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim12 games · scored 25 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
5
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
6
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 22 · conceded 13
2
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
6
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
