Borussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Mönchengladbach
13th · 35 pts · 33 played
LDDWL
4–0Full time
1899 Hoffenheim
5th · 61 pts · 33 played
DWWDW
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were slight favourites.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 42). Absences weigh more on Borussia Mönchengladbach. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 7 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 7 and had to travel 276 km.
Away travel276 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Borussia Mönchengladbach30%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim45%
Borussia Mönchengladbach32%
Draw27%
1899 Hoffenheim41%
Borussia Mönchengladbach32%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim43%
Borussia Mönchengladbach24%
Draw23%
1899 Hoffenheim53%
Borussia Mönchengladbach30%
Draw26%
1899 Hoffenheim43%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)
No weather data yet
RefereeFrank Willenborg
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 59
Team strength
Borussia Mönchengladbach1899 Hoffenheim
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
49
34
AttackIn forecast
46
21
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia Mönchengladbach1899 Hoffenheim
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.97
1.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.45
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
64%
Scored inContext
85%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
11.21
ShotsContext
13.94
4.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.06
35%
On target shareContext
36%
7.72
Shots in the boxContext
9.59
67%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.23
13.73
Shots allowedContext
11.85
5.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.18
3.19
BlocksContext
3.42
3.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.97
72%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
431
PassesContext
463
355
Accurate passesContext
374
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.12
FoulsContext
13.39
10.33
Fouls sufferedContext
8.61
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
2.06
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.50
ShotsContext
15.60
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
35%
On target shareContext
36%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
70%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.60
Shots allowedContext
10.10
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.89
BlocksContext
2.89
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
76%
Save rateContext
58%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
437
PassesContext
475
355
Accurate passesContext
387
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.10
FoulsContext
13.30
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
7.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km895 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel276 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Mönchengladbach |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 May | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 276 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 895 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 105 | 105 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
26L. Ullrich
38A. Bolin
6Y. Engelhardt
7K. Stöger
29J. Scally
36W. Mohya
15H. Tabaković
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
29B. Toure
11F. Asllani
27A. Kramarić
19T. Lemperle
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Mönchengladbach-1.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim+1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home
1.31points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-5
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
1.81points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-3
- Scored
- 1.88
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | L 1–3 AW 4–0 H | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 0–0 AL 1–3 H | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H | L 0–5 AW 3–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 HW 3–0 A | W 4–2 AW 3–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–4 AL 0–3 H | L 1–5 AL 1–4 H |
| Union Berlin | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | W 3–1 HW 4–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–3 AL 4–6 H | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A | D 3–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 AW 4–1 H |
| Points | 35 of 96 · 1.09 per game | 58 of 96 · 1.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins2 draws2 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game2.78 – 2.11
Over 2.589%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 14 Jan 20261899 Hoffenheim5–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 3 May 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach4–41899 Hoffenheim
- 21 Dec 20241899 Hoffenheim1–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 20 Apr 20241899 Hoffenheim4–3Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 2 Dec 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11899 Hoffenheim
- 28 Jan 20231899 Hoffenheim1–4Borussia Mönchengladbach
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 1.97 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.61 | 1.45 | |
| Match goals | 2.76 | 3.42 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 67% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 15% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.40 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 5.52 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 4.79 | |
| Match total | 8.42 | 10.31 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 13/31 | 70% 23/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 11/31 | 64% 21/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 8/31 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 2.12 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.18 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.79 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 15/33 | 64% 21/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 12/33 | 30% 10/33 | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.44 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 9.90 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.30 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Frank Willenborg 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.27league 3.69
Red cards0.15league 0.17
Cards 5+49%league 37%
Fouls21.8league 20.2
Penalties0.25league 0.35
Home wins41%league 44%
Borussia Mönchengladbach3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W22 Nov 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–00
- D3 May 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim4–40
- W2 Oct 21A · VfL Wolfsburg3–13
1899 Hoffenheim12 with this referee
Record6-3-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds3
- W27 Jan 26A · Werder Bremen2–03
- W2 Nov 25A · VfL Wolfsburg3–22
- D3 May 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–40
- W16 Feb 25A · Werder Bremen3–13
- W23 Nov 24H · RB Leipzig4–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Mönchengladbach33 games · scored 38 · conceded 53
5
8
0-15
4
9
16-30
6
12
31-45
3
2
46-60
9
10
61-75
11
12
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim33 games · scored 65 · conceded 48
5
8
0-15
12
9
16-30
19
7
31-45
14
5
46-60
5
9
61-75
10
10
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
5
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
