Bournemouth vs Brentford – 12 Sep 2026

Premier League Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 12 · 15:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 15th · 2 pts · 3 played LDD

2–2Full time

Brentford 5th · 5 pts · 3 played WDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Bournemouth had 7.1 days of rest, Brentford 7 and had to travel 139 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel139 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Bournemouth50%

Draw23%

Brentford27%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.25

Bournemouth48%

Draw25%

Brentford27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Bournemouth49%

Draw24%

Brentford28%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.26

Bournemouth42%

Draw24%

Brentford33%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.40

Bournemouth50%

Draw23%

Brentford27%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.26

Over 2.5 59% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

20°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 22 km/h
Humidity 75%

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 111

Team strength

Bournemouth

Brentford

78 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

83 AttackIn forecast 73

82 DefenceIn forecast 73

46 Form indexContext 63

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Brentford

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 2.25

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.58

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 33%

13.00 ShotsContext 20.00

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

36% On target shareContext 25%

8.67 Shots in the boxContext 14.67

70% Box shareContext 71%

10% ConversionContext 8%

1.00 OffsidesContext —

11.33 Shots allowedContext 11.67

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67

2.50 BlocksContext 3.67

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

69% Save rateContext 64%

45% PossessionIn forecast 47%

377 PassesContext 385

300 Accurate passesContext 305

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.86 Team ratingContext 7.01

13.00 FoulsContext 16.33

14.67 Fouls sufferedContext 9.33

2.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.80

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.61

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

100% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.90 ShotsContext 14.50

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

33% On target shareContext 28%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 10.60

61% Box shareContext 71%

12% ConversionContext 10%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.10 Shots allowedContext 14.90

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67

4.22 BlocksContext 5.38

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.89

69% Save rateContext 69%

48% PossessionIn forecast 49%

404 PassesContext 395

326 Accurate passesContext 318

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.92

12.90 FoulsContext 11.00

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 8.80

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth LDD

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km946 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 46 · 2 pts vs 2.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected

D5 SepA · Newcastle2–21.3 xPts
D29 AugH · Everton1–11.9 xPts
L23 AugA · Manchester City1–20.9 xPts

Brentford WDD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel139 km540 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 63 · 5 pts vs 3.6 for an average club · +0.0 vs expected

D5 SepH · Sunderland1–12.0 xPts
D30 AugA · Leeds1–11.3 xPts
W22 AugH · Tottenham3–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Sep	7Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	139 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	946 km	540 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.2	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith

8A. Scott 12T. Adams

16M. Tavernier 19J. Kluivert 37Rayan

9Evanilson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 20K. Ajer 44J. Schuster 2A. Hickey

27V. Janelt 18M. Sangaré

7K. Schade 6Y. Yarmoliuk 19J. Anthony

9Thiago

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth+1.5 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Brentford-1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Brentford · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 Bournemouth wins3 draws5 Brentford wins

Goals per game0.88 – 1.88 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 38%

3 Mar 2026Bournemouth0–0Brentford
27 Dec 2025Brentford4–1Bournemouth
15 Mar 2025Bournemouth1–2Brentford
9 Nov 2024Brentford3–2Bournemouth
11 May 2024Bournemouth1–2Brentford
2 Sep 2023Brentford2–2Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	1.67
Conceded per game	1.67	0.67
Match goals	3.00	2.33	3.05
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	33%	59%
Over 3.5	33%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	67%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	3	3

	Bournemouth	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.40
Conceded per game	1.10	1.20
Match goals	2.70	2.60	3.05
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	59%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	5.67
Corners conceded	6.33	3.67
Match total	11.66	9.34	9.14
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	2.67	2.67
Opponent cards	1.67	1.00
Match total	4.34	3.67	4.00
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Over 4.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3

	Bournemouth	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	5.10
Corners conceded	5.60	5.80
Match total	10.70	10.90	9.14
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.90
Opponent cards	1.80	2.00
Match total	4.40	3.90	4.00
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 111 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 3.87

Red cards0.09league 0.03

Cards 5+36%league 37%

Fouls20.1league 23.4

Penalties0.23league 0.17

Home wins38%league 40%

Bournemouth7 with this referee

Record2-2-3 Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.1 Pens for · against0 · 2

L23 Aug 26A · Manchester City1–22
D28 Feb 26H · Sunderland1–14
D18 Oct 25A · Crystal Palace3–34
W3 May 25A · Arsenal2–12
W15 Feb 25A · Southampton3–13

Brentford13 with this referee

Record3-4-6 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.4 Pens for · against2 · 1

D21 Mar 26A · Leeds0–00
L21 Feb 26H · Brighton0–21
L18 May 25H · Fulham2–34
L8 Mar 25H · Aston Villa0–12
L2 Feb 25H · Tottenham0–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.