Bournemouth vs Liverpool – 20 Sep 2026

Premier League Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 20 · 14:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 16th · 3 pts · 4 played LDDD

0–1Full time

Liverpool 10th · 6 pts · 4 played DDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Bournemouth. Bournemouth had 2.8 days of rest, Liverpool 8 and had to travel 308 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel308 kmRest days2.8 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Bournemouth45%

Draw24%

Liverpool31%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.37

Bournemouth40%

Draw26%

Liverpool34%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.27

Bournemouth45%

Draw24%

Liverpool31%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.37

Bournemouth37%

Draw24%

Liverpool39%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.54

Bournemouth45%

Draw24%

Liverpool31%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.34

Over 2.5 59% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

21°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 12 km/h
Humidity 48%

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 200

Team strength

Bournemouth

Liverpool

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 83

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 84

83 AttackIn forecast 85

82 DefenceIn forecast 84

62 Form indexContext 78

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Liverpool

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.68

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

100% Scored inContext 75%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.75 ShotsContext 16.00

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.25

41% On target shareContext 33%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

65% Box shareContext 59%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.25

10.50 Shots allowedContext 12.25

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.00 BlocksContext 4.25

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

69% Save rateContext 75%

48% PossessionIn forecast 60%

407 PassesContext 525

327 Accurate passesContext 455

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.82 Team ratingContext 7.04

12.25 FoulsContext 13.00

14.25 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

3.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

100% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.00 ShotsContext 14.80

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

36% On target shareContext 34%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

61% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.20

11.70 Shots allowedContext 12.10

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.33 BlocksContext 3.20

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

71% Save rateContext 66%

49% PossessionIn forecast 57%

415 PassesContext 501

337 Accurate passesContext 430

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.94

12.20 FoulsContext 11.90

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth LDDDW

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,647 km in 14d

Schedule load13%Low

Form 62 · 6 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts
D12 SepH · Brentford2–21.7 xPts
D5 SepA · Newcastle2–21.3 xPts
D29 AugH · Everton1–11.9 xPts
L23 AugA · Manchester City1–20.9 xPts

Liverpool DDWWD

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel308 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected

D12 SepH · Fulham0–02.0 xPts
W9 SepH · Atletico Madrid2–12.0 xPts
W4 SepA · Ipswich2–01.9 xPts
D29 AugH · Nottingham Forest2–22.0 xPts
D23 AugA · Newcastle2–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 13	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep	8Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	308 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,647 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	0 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	20	21.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith

8A. Scott 12T. Adams

16M. Tavernier 10R. Christie 37Rayan

9Evanilson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo

10A. Mac Allister 8D. Szoboszlai

29B. Barcola 7F. Wirtz 18C. Gakpo

9A. Isak

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Absences are shown before kick-off

Liverpool Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth+0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Liverpool-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Liverpool · Away 2.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Bournemouth	Liverpool
Newcastle	D 2–2 A	D 2–2 A
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Bournemouth wins0 draws6 Liverpool wins

Goals per game0.88 – 3.38 Over 2.575% Both scored38% Clean sheets13% · 50%

24 Jan 2026Bournemouth3–2Liverpool
15 Aug 2025Liverpool4–2Bournemouth
1 Feb 2025Bournemouth0–2Liverpool
21 Sep 2024Liverpool3–0Bournemouth
21 Jan 2024Bournemouth0–4Liverpool
19 Aug 2023Liverpool3–1Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.50
Conceded per game	1.75	1.00
Match goals	3.25	2.50	3.06
Over 1.5	100%	75%
Over 2.5	75%	50%	59%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	100%	50%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	0%	25%
Games	4	4

	Bournemouth	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.70
Conceded per game	1.20	1.50
Match goals	2.80	3.20	3.06
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	59%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	80%	80%	61%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.25
Corners conceded	5.00	4.75
Match total	9.50	9.00	9.44
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	25% 1/4
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	3.25	2.50
Opponent cards	1.50	2.25
Match total	4.75	4.75	4.02
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4

	Bournemouth	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	5.90
Corners conceded	5.50	4.30
Match total	10.70	10.20	9.44
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.90
Opponent cards	1.90	2.50
Match total	4.60	4.40	4.02
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.72league 3.83

Red cards0.14league 0.13

Cards 5+35%league 41%

Fouls22.5league 22.9

Penalties0.20league 0.20

Home wins45%league 37%

Bournemouth10 with this referee

Record6-3-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 3

W11 Apr 26A · Arsenal2–13
W31 Jan 26A · Wolves2–03
D6 Dec 25H · Chelsea0–00
D27 Sep 25A · Leeds2–22
W14 Apr 25H · Fulham1–03

Liverpool18 with this referee

Record6-6-6 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.2 Pens for · against5 · 1 Reds1

L19 Oct 25H · Manchester United1–20
W14 Sep 25A · Burnley1–02
D12 Feb 25A · Everton2–24
D5 Jan 25H · Manchester United2–22
L14 Sep 24H · Nottingham Forest0–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.