Bournemouth vs Wolves – 23 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 23 · 15:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 16th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–0Full time

Wolves 19th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were slight favourites.

Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 54). Bournemouth had 7.8 days of rest, Wolves 6.9 and had to travel 208 km.

Away travel208 kmRest days7.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Bournemouth54%

Draw24%

Wolves22%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.09

Bournemouth54%

Draw25%

Wolves22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03

Bournemouth54%

Draw24%

Wolves22%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.08

Bournemouth46%

Draw26%

Wolves28%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.22

Bournemouth53%

Draw25%

Wolves22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

Over 2.5 56% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Bramall

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 85

Team strength

Bournemouth

Wolves

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

83 AttackIn forecast 41

82 DefenceIn forecast 46

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Wolves

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

80% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.40 ShotsContext 12.30

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

29% On target shareContext 31%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

66% Box shareContext 61%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.86

11.30 Shots allowedContext 10.30

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.75 BlocksContext 2.22

3.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

71% Save rateContext 70%

52% PossessionIn forecast 48%

410 PassesContext 436

331 Accurate passesContext 367

81% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.91

13.60 FoulsContext 11.60

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km617 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Wolves

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel208 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Wolves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Premier League 2025-2026, 15 Aug	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	208 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	617 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 18B. Diakité 15A. Smith

12T. Adams

24A. Semenyo 16M. Tavernier 8A. Scott 7D. Brooks

9Evanilson

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1José Sá(G)

24Toti Gomes 12E. Agbadou 2M. Doherty

6D. Møller Wolfe 8João Gomes 27J. Bellegarde 26K. Hoever

10J. Arias 9J. Strand Larsen 5M. Munetsi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Wolves Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth-0.7 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Wolves+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home No home games yet this season.

Wolves · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Bournemouth wins1 draws2 Wolves wins

Goals per game1.17 – 0.83 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets50% · 33%

22 Feb 2025Bournemouth0–1Wolves
30 Nov 2024Wolves2–4Bournemouth
24 Apr 2024Wolves0–1Bournemouth
21 Oct 2023Bournemouth1–2Wolves
18 Feb 2023Wolves0–1Bournemouth
31 Aug 2022Bournemouth0–0Wolves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.00
Conceded per game	4.00	4.00
Match goals	6.00	4.00	2.91
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	56%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Bournemouth	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.00
Conceded per game	4.00	4.00
Match goals	6.00	4.00	2.91
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	56%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	4.00
Corners conceded	6.00	5.00
Match total	13.00	9.00	10.08
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	3.00	3.00	3.08
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Bournemouth	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	5.22	4.33
Corners conceded	4.67	4.00
Match total	9.89	8.33	10.08
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.70
Opponent cards	2.30	1.70
Match total	5.00	3.40	3.08
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Bramall 85 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 3.00

Red cards0.15league 0.08

Cards 5+39%league 33%

Fouls22.2league 21.3

Penalties0.16league 0.25

Home wins49%league 42%

Bournemouth5 with this referee

Record0-3-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L20 May 25A · Manchester City1–34
D26 Dec 24H · Crystal Palace0–02
D3 Dec 23H · Aston Villa2–25
L19 Aug 23A · Liverpool1–33
D1 Oct 22H · Brentford0–01

Wolves5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 0

W9 Nov 24H · Southampton2–01
L11 May 24H · Crystal Palace1–33
D2 Apr 24A · Burnley1–12
W30 Dec 23H · Everton3–02
W15 Oct 22H · Nottingham Forest1–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.