Brentford vs Chelsea – 18 Sep 2026

Premier League Gameweek 5 Fri, Sep 18 · 20:00 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford 7th · 6 pts · 4 played WDDD

3–0Full time

Chelsea 6th · 7 pts · 4 played WWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brentford were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Chelsea. Brentford had 6.2 days of rest, Chelsea 6.2 and had to travel 13 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel13 kmRest days6.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Brentford45%

Draw23%

Chelsea32%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.47

Brentford45%

Draw26%

Chelsea30%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.18

Brentford45%

Draw23%

Chelsea31%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.44

Brentford37%

Draw23%

Chelsea40%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.65

Brentford45%

Draw23%

Chelsea32%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.47

Over 2.5 63% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

17°CDrizzle

Precipitation 0.1 mm
Wind 17 km/h
Humidity 73%

RefereeAndy Madley

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 146

Team strength

Brentford

Chelsea

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

73 AttackIn forecast 77

73 DefenceIn forecast 74

65 Form indexContext 75

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brentford

Chelsea

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25

1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.54

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.88

100% Scored inContext 100%

25% Clean sheetsContext 0%

17.00 ShotsContext 15.00

4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

25% On target shareContext 40%

12.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.75

72% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 17%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.75 Shots allowedContext 14.75

5.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50

3.25 BlocksContext 4.00

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.75

71% Save rateContext 73%

46% PossessionIn forecast 44%

383 PassesContext 396

295 Accurate passesContext 324

77% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.96 Team ratingContext 7.04

15.50 FoulsContext 9.00

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.60 ShotsContext 13.10

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

28% On target shareContext 32%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

72% Box shareContext 57%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.88

15.50 Shots allowedContext 12.20

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

5.13 BlocksContext 3.00

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

72% Save rateContext 65%

48% PossessionIn forecast 50%

387 PassesContext 471

306 Accurate passesContext 401

79% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.70 FoulsContext 10.60

9.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford WDDD

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km278 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 65 · 6 pts vs 4.2 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected

D12 SepA · Bournemouth2–21.0 xPts
D5 SepH · Sunderland1–12.0 xPts
D30 AugA · Leeds1–11.3 xPts
W22 AugH · Tottenham3–01.7 xPts

Chelsea WWLD

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel13 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 75 · 7 pts vs 4.0 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

D12 SepH · Hull City2–22.3 xPts
L6 SepA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
W30 AugH · Brighton4–31.3 xPts
W24 AugA · Fulham3–21.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Sep	6.2Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	278 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	21.8	21.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 20K. Ajer 44J. Schuster 33M. Kayode

27V. Janelt 6Y. Yarmoliuk

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 19J. Anthony

9Thiago

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1E. Martínez(G)

6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 3W. Fofana

29Pep Chavarría 4V. Barco 14J. Henderson 7Pedro Neto

17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer

18D. Welbeck

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford-0.3 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Chelsea+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.50

Chelsea · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Brentford wins4 draws3 Chelsea wins

Goals per game1.30 – 1.00 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 40%

17 Jan 2026Chelsea2–0Brentford
13 Sep 2025Brentford2–2Chelsea
6 Apr 2025Brentford0–0Chelsea
15 Dec 2024Chelsea2–1Brentford
2 Mar 2024Brentford2–2Chelsea
28 Oct 2023Chelsea0–2Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.75	2.50
Conceded per game	1.00	2.25
Match goals	2.75	4.75	3.26
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	63%
Over 3.5	25%	75%
Both teams scored	75%	100%	64%
Clean sheets	25%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	4	4

	Brentford	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.50
Conceded per game	1.20	2.00
Match goals	2.60	3.50	3.26
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	63%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	64%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	5.25
Corners conceded	3.25	5.50
Match total	7.75	10.75	9.21
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4
Cards
Cards	2.25	2.25
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	4.25	5.25	4.08
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	100% 4/4
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4

	Brentford	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.00
Corners conceded	5.70	4.50
Match total	10.70	9.50	9.21
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.70
Opponent cards	2.30	2.70
Match total	4.30	5.40	4.08
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andy Madley 146 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.36league 3.88

Red cards0.13league 0.13

Cards 5+28%league 40%

Fouls23.0league 23.4

Penalties0.16league 0.20

Home wins45%league 33%

Brentford11 with this referee

Record5-3-3 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3 Pens for · against2 · 1

W7 Feb 26A · Newcastle3–22
D1 Jan 26H · Tottenham0–01
W20 Oct 25A · West Ham2–01
L18 Jan 25H · Liverpool0–22
D27 Dec 24A · Brighton0–02

Chelsea14 with this referee

Record6-3-5 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.2 Pens for · against1 · 1

D20 Dec 25A · Newcastle2–26
L25 Oct 25H · Sunderland1–21
W23 Nov 24A · Leicester2–13
W5 May 24H · West Ham5–01
W17 Mar 24H · Leicester4–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.