Brentford
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Brentford were slight favourites.
Brentford were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Brentford. Brentford had 6 days of rest, Sunderland 6 and had to travel 387 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel387 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Brentford59%
Draw21%
Sunderland20%
Brentford56%
Draw23%
Sunderland21%
Brentford59%
Draw21%
Sunderland19%
Brentford51%
Draw23%
Sunderland26%
Brentford59%
Draw21%
Sunderland20%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)
22°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 42%
RefereeThomas Bramall
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 111
Team strength
Brentford
Sunderland
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
73
AttackIn forecast
62
73
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrentfordSunderland
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.77
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
24.00
ShotsContext
11.50
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
27%
On target shareContext
35%
18.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
77%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
—
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.50
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
4.00
BlocksContext
4.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
83%
Save rateContext
33%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
393
PassesContext
474
315
Accurate passesContext
408
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.93
15.00
FoulsContext
12.00
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.90
ShotsContext
13.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
29%
On target shareContext
33%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
72%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.86
14.90
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
5.88
BlocksContext
3.30
4.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
74%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
394
PassesContext
407
313
Accurate passesContext
335
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.00
FoulsContext
12.80
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brentford
WD
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km540 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 66 · 4 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brentford |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 6Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 387 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 540 km | 716 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brentford
Confirmed XI
1C. Kelleher(G)
23K. Lewis-Potter
22N. Collins
20K. Ajer
33M. Kayode
27V. Janelt
18M. Sangaré
7K. Schade
24M. Damsgaard
11D. Ouattara
9Thiago
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
5D. Ballard
4K. Danso
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
10N. Angulo
28E. Le Fée
12T. Meunier
9B. Brobbey
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brentford
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brentford-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Sunderland+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Brentford · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Sunderland · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Brentford wins0 draws1 Sunderland wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 7 Jan 2026Brentford3–0Sunderland
- 30 Aug 2025Sunderland2–1Brentford
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brentford | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Brentford | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.90 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brentford | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 7.50 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Brentford | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.00 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Bramall 111 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.72league 3.82
Red cards0.14league 0.05
Cards 5+41%league 32%
Fouls22.0league 23.2
Penalties0.18league 0.18
Home wins48%league 45%
Brentford2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Nov 23H · West Ham3–21
- D1 Oct 22A · Bournemouth0–02
Sunderland6 with this referee
Record2-3-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L24 Jan 26A · West Ham1–34
- D3 Nov 25H · Everton1–13
- D13 Sep 25A · Crystal Palace0–01
- W5 Jan 25H · Portsmouth1–01
- W10 Apr 23A · Cardiff1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brentford2 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Sunderland2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
