Brentford
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Brentford58.1%fair odds 1.72
Draw22.5%fair odds 4.44
Sunderland19.4%fair odds 5.16
Expected goals1.99 – 1.07total 3.05
Likeliest score1–110.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sunderland
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Brentford ↓ · Sunderland → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Brentford goals, columns Sunderland goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%9.49
- 2–19.9%10.07
- 2–09.3%10.75
- 1–08.8%11.31
- 3–16.6%15.21
- 3–06.2%16.25
- 1–25.3%18.70
- 2–25.3%18.84
- 0–05.3%19.05
- 0–14.5%22.16
Winning margin
17.2%
Brentford by 3+
fair 5.80
17.9%
Brentford by 2
fair 5.59
23.0%
Brentford by 1
fair 4.35
22.5%
Draw
fair 4.44
12.1%
Sunderland by 1
fair 8.25
5.2%
Sunderland by 2
fair 19.30
2.1%
Sunderland by 3+
fair 48.35
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Brentford goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
Sunderland goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 58.1% | 58.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 22.5% | 22.4% | +0.2 pp |
| Sunderland win | 19.4% | 19.4% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 59.5% | -0.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.2% | 57.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Brentford | 1.99 | 2.00 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Sunderland | 1.07 | 1.08 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Brentford win58.1%1.72
- Draw22.5%4.44
- Sunderland win19.4%5.16
- Double chance Brentford or draw80.6%1.24
- Double chance Brentford or Sunderland77.5%1.29
- Double chance Sunderland or draw41.9%2.39
- Draw no bet Brentford75.0%1.33
- Draw no bet Sunderland25.0%4.00
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.4%1.23
- Over 2.558.9%1.70
- Over 3.536.5%2.74
- Over 4.519.4%5.16
- Under 1.518.6%5.38
- Under 2.541.1%2.43
- Under 3.563.5%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes57.2%1.75
- No42.8%2.33
- Yes and over 2.546.6%2.15
- Brentford win and yes29.0%3.45
- Draw and yes17.3%5.79
- Sunderland win and yes10.9%9.19
Team goals
- Brentford over 0.586.3%1.16
- Brentford over 1.559.0%1.70
- Brentford over 2.531.9%3.13
- Sunderland over 0.565.6%1.52
- Sunderland over 1.528.9%3.46
- Sunderland over 2.59.3%10.72
- Brentford clean sheet34.4%2.91
- Sunderland clean sheet13.7%7.28
- Brentford win to nil29.1%3.44
- Sunderland win to nil8.5%11.78
Handicap
- Brentford −1.535.1%2.85
- Brentford −2.517.2%5.80
- Sunderland +1.564.9%1.54
- Sunderland +2.582.8%1.21
- Sunderland −1.57.2%13.79
- Brentford +1.592.8%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored22
Favourite won40.9%
Avg chance given to result38.7%
1X2 Brier0.623
Over 2.5 called right54.5%
BTTS called right54.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 38.4% | 16.7% |
| 40–50% | 7 | 44.8% | 42.9% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 55.8% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 68.2% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 12 of 22 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6297 | 0.5739 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.9% | 41.6% |
| Favourite won | 41.7% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 12 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 22 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.