Brighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Premier League
Gameweek 3 Sun, Aug 31 · 14:00
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 72). Brighton had 7 days of rest, Manchester City 8.1 and had to travel 326 km.
Away travel326 kmRest days7 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Brighton31%
Draw25%
Manchester City44%
Brighton31%
Draw27%
Manchester City42%
Brighton31%
Draw25%
Manchester City44%
Brighton24%
Draw24%
Manchester City52%
Brighton31%
Draw27%
Manchester City42%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 100
Team strength
Brighton
Manchester City
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
87
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
87
AttackIn forecast
92
85
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrightonManchester City
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.96
xGVia Att/Def
2.01
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
-1.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
35%
On target shareContext
32%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
57%
Box shareContext
57%
4%
ConversionContext
16%
4.50
OffsidesContext
—
9.00
Shots allowedContext
10.50
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
1.00
BlocksContext
2.50
1.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
40%
Save rateContext
75%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
459
PassesContext
544
393
Accurate passesContext
483
86%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.64
Team ratingContext
7.00
15.50
FoulsContext
7.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
90%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
14.30
ShotsContext
14.80
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
39%
On target shareContext
35%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
62%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.60
11.40
Shots allowedContext
8.50
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
3.00
BlocksContext
2.67
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
61%
Save rateContext
74%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
469
PassesContext
589
401
Accurate passesContext
526
86%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.97
Team ratingContext
7.17
11.30
FoulsContext
7.50
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brighton
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km691 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester City
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel326 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brighton |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 8.1Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 326 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 691 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
29M. De Cuyper
5L. Dunk
6J. van Hecke
34J. Veltman
13J. Hinshelwood
17C. Baleba
22K. Mitoma
25D. Gómez
11Y. Minteh
18D. Welbeck
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
1J. Trafford(G)
21R. Aït-Nouri
45A. Khusanov
5J. Stones
27M. Nunes
4T. Reijnders
16Rodri
20Bernardo Silva
7O. Marmoush
9E. Haaland
52O. Bobb
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brighton
Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brighton+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Manchester City+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Brighton · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Manchester City · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Brighton wins2 draws6 Manchester City wins
Goals per game1.10 – 2.30
Over 2.580%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets0% · 30%
- 15 Mar 2025Manchester City2–2Brighton
- 9 Nov 2024Brighton2–1Manchester City
- 25 Apr 2024Brighton0–4Manchester City
- 21 Oct 2023Manchester City2–1Brighton
- 24 May 2023Brighton1–1Manchester City
- 22 Oct 2022Manchester City3–1Brighton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brighton | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Brighton | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brighton | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 9.00 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 4.00 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Brighton | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 8.50 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.70 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 100 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.23league 3.54
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+41%league 42%
Fouls22.3league 22.5
Penalties0.29league 0.27
Home wins43%league 50%
Brighton9 with this referee
Record3-4-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W26 Apr 25H · West Ham3–21
- D11 May 24A · Newcastle1–14
- L18 Feb 23H · Fulham0–10
- W14 Jan 23H · Liverpool3–01
- D18 Oct 22H · Nottingham Forest0–03
Manchester City8 with this referee
Record8-0-0
Cards · opp.1.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- W2 Apr 25H · Leicester2–01
- W3 Apr 24H · Aston Villa4–11
- W20 Feb 24H · Brentford1–02
- W15 Apr 23H · Leicester3–11
- W5 Nov 22H · Fulham2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brighton2 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Manchester City2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
2
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 19 · conceded 6
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
