Premier League Gameweek 28 Sun, Mar 1 2026 · 14:00 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Brighton
2–1 Full time · HT 2–1 xG 1.32 – 0.79
Nottingham Forest
  • D. Gómez 6’
  • D. Welbeck 15’
  • 13’ M. Gibbs-White
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Brighton beat Nottingham Forest

Brighton entered as favourites and won 2–1 through goals from Gómez and Welbeck. Nottingham Forest replied through a Gibbs-White goal. Brighton finished with the higher xG (1.32 vs 0.79). On the chances created, Nottingham Forest deserved more: 1.0 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Brighton ✓52%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest24%

Model vs reality

Brighton goals
2
Model 1.77 · xG 1.32
Nottingham Forest goals
1
Model 1.14 · xG 0.79
Total goals
3
Model 2.91 · xG 2.11
Score 2–1
10%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 56%
Both scored
Yes
Model 57%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchM. Gibbs-WhiteNottingham Forest · 1 goal
8.0
  • RefereeAndy Madley
  • VenueThe American Express Community Stadium
  • Table before kick-offBrighton 14th · Nottingham Forest 17th

Timeline

  1. D. Gómez 1–0Assist P. Groß
    6’
  2. M. Gibbs-White 1–1Assist Igor Jesus
    13’
  3. D. Welbeck 2–1Assist J. Hinshelwood
    15’
  4. E. AndersonYellow card · Simulation
    30’
  5. Half time · 2–1
  6. M. WiefferYellow card · Foul
    55’
  7. ⇄ L. NetzFor N. Williams
    56’
  8. ⇄ JairFor O. Hutchinson
    56’
  9. ⇄ J. VeltmanFor M. Wieffer
    71’
  10. ⇄ D. BakwaFor C. Hudson-Odoi
    74’
  11. ⇄ D. NdoyeFor T. Aina
    82’
  12. ⇄ T. AwoniyiFor Igor Jesus
    83’
  13. K. MitomaYellow card · Foul
    84’
  14. ⇄ S. MarchFor D. Gómez
    86’
  15. ⇄ C. BalebaFor J. Milner
    86’
  16. ⇄ M. De CuyperFor K. Mitoma
    90+1’
  17. L. DunkYellow card · Foul
    90+3’
  18. Full time · 2–1

Team stats

Brighton14 shots · 7 in box, 7 outside
Nottingham Forest13 shots · 7 in box, 6 outside
BrightonNottingham Forest
54% Possession 46%
1.32 Expected goals (xG) 0.79
1.76 Expected points (xPts) 0.96
14 Shots 13
7 Shots on target 4
5 Shots off target 3
2 Blocked shots 6
7 Shots inside the box 7
7 Shots outside the box 6
522 Passes 444
87% Pass accuracy 86%
4 Corners 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
12 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 4
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
7.09 Team rating 6.70

Line-ups

Brighton 4-2-3-1

16.6 B. Verbruggen(G)
247.3 F. Kadıoğlu 57.2 L. Dunk 67.6 J. van Hecke 276.3 M. Wieffer ↓71’
307.9 P. Groß A 206.7 J. Milner ↓86’
226.9 K. Mitoma ↓90’ 136.3 J. Hinshelwood A 257.9 D. Gómez ↓86’
187.2 D. Welbeck
  • 1B. Verbruggen (G)6.6
  • 24F. Kadıoğlu7.3
  • 5L. Dunk7.2
  • 6J. van Hecke7.6
  • 27M. Wieffer↓71’6.3
  • 30P. GroßA7.9
  • 20J. Milner↓86’6.7
  • 22K. Mitoma↓90’6.9
  • 13J. HinshelwoodA6.3
  • 25D. Gómez↓86’7.9
  • 18D. Welbeck7.2

Substitutes used

  • 34J. Veltman↑71’7.0
  • 7S. March↑86’6.6
  • 17C. Baleba↑86’6.6
  • 29M. De Cuyper↑90’

Unused: J. Steele, O. Boscagli, C. Kostoulas, G. Rutter, Y. Minteh

Nottingham Forest 4-2-3-1

266.9 M. Sels(G)
35.9 N. Williams ↓56’ 56.5 Murillo 316.7 N. Milenković 346.2 T. Aina ↓82’
86.9 E. Anderson 66.6 I. Sangaré
76.9 C. Hudson-Odoi ↓74’ 108.0★ M. Gibbs-White 216.2 O. Hutchinson ↓56’
196.3 Igor Jesus A↓83’
  • 26M. Sels (G)6.9
  • 3N. Williams↓56’5.9
  • 5Murillo6.5
  • 31N. Milenković6.7
  • 34T. Aina↓82’6.2
  • 8E. Anderson6.9
  • 6I. Sangaré6.6
  • 7C. Hudson-Odoi↓74’6.9
  • 10M. Gibbs-White ★8.0
  • 21O. Hutchinson↓56’6.2
  • 19Igor JesusA↓83’6.3

Substitutes used

  • 9T. Awoniyi↑83’6.5
  • 29D. Bakwa↑74’6.3
  • 25L. Netz↑56’6.9
  • 23Jair↑56’6.9
  • 14D. Ndoye↑82’6.6

Unused: A. Gunn, R. Yates, J. McAtee, N. Domínguez

Player stats

Top rated
M. Gibbs-WhiteNottingham Forest8.0
2nd
P. GroßBrighton7.9
3rd
D. GómezBrighton7.9

Brighton

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
B. Verbruggen G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 73% 44 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
F. Kadıoğlu M 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 82% 50 2 0 0/0 0/3 7.3
L. Dunk D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 97% 88 1 1 0/0 1/1 7.2
J. van Hecke D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 89% 57 2 1 0/0 1/1 7.6
M. Wieffer M 71 0 0 1 (1) 1 97% 30 2 1 0/0 2/2 6.3
P. Groß M 90 0 1 1 (1) 3 85% 60 2 1 1/1 1/0 7.9
J. Milner M 86 0 0 0 (0) 1 89% 56 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.7
K. Mitoma M 90 0 0 3 (2) 3 83% 36 0 0 0/0 1/1 6.9
J. Hinshelwood M 90 0 1 2 (1) 1 59% 27 2 0 0/1 3/0 6.3
D. Gómez M 86 1 0 1 (1) 2 88% 33 3 0 1/2 2/0 7.9
D. Welbeck F 90 1 0 2 (1) 1 93% 28 2 2 0/2 0/1 7.2
J. Veltman D 19 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 9 0 0 0/0 0/1 7.0
S. March M 4 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.6
C. Baleba M 4 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
M. De Cuyper D 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/1 —

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Sels G 90 0 0 5 sv 0 72% 36 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.9
N. Williams D 56 0 0 0 (0) 0 74% 27 2 0 0/2 0/1 5.9
Murillo D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 66 2 0 0/0 3/0 6.5
N. Milenković D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 50 2 2 0/0 0/0 6.7
T. Aina D 82 0 0 0 (0) 1 97% 30 0 1 0/1 0/0 6.2
E. Anderson M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 91% 56 1 2 0/0 3/1 6.9
I. Sangaré M 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 85% 41 1 1 2/3 1/1 6.6
C. Hudson-Odoi F 74 0 0 0 (0) 2 91% 22 0 0 3/4 0/2 6.9
M. Gibbs-White M 90 1 0 3 (2) 3 86% 36 0 0 2/2 0/1 8.0
O. Hutchinson F 56 0 0 1 (1) 0 93% 15 0 0 0/0 1/1 6.2
Igor Jesus F 83 0 1 0 (0) 2 84% 25 0 1 2/2 2/2 6.3
T. Awoniyi F 7 0 0 1 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.5
D. Bakwa F 16 0 0 0 (0) 0 60% 5 0 0 0/1 2/0 6.3
L. Netz D 34 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 12 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.9
Jair D 34 0 0 0 (0) 0 71% 21 1 1 0/0 0/0 6.9
D. Ndoye F 8 0 0 0 (0) 1 100% 2 0 0 1/2 1/2 6.6

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.