Brighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Premier League
Gameweek 28 Sun, Mar 1 · 14:00
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Brighton
14th · 34 pts · 27 played
LDLLW
2–1Full time
Nottingham Forest
17th · 27 pts · 27 played
WDLDL
Our take
Brighton were slight favourites.
Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 65). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nottingham Forest. Brighton had 8 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 2.8 and had to travel 244 km.
Away travel244 kmRest days8 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 3
Brighton52%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest24%
Brighton51%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest24%
Brighton51%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest24%
Brighton44%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest30%
Brighton50%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest24%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndy Madley
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 131
Team strength
BrightonNottingham Forest
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
87
AttackIn forecast
68
85
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrightonNottingham Forest
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.93
1.26
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
78%
Scored inContext
52%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
12.78
ShotsContext
13.00
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.08
34%
On target shareContext
30%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
7.81
66%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.36
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.30
Shots allowedContext
12.52
3.96
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.07
3.52
BlocksContext
4.58
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.65
71%
Save rateContext
63%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
470
PassesContext
419
395
Accurate passesContext
346
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.04
FoulsContext
10.89
10.19
Fouls sufferedContext
11.85
2.41
Yellow cardsContext
1.44
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.80
ShotsContext
15.80
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
35%
On target shareContext
29%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
70%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.10
Shots allowedContext
10.20
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.11
3.57
BlocksContext
3.56
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
74%
Save rateContext
71%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
487
PassesContext
399
408
Accurate passesContext
329
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.30
FoulsContext
11.10
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brighton
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km142 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nottingham Forest
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel244 km5,226 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brighton |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 33 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 26 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 244 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 142 km | 5,226 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
24F. Kadıoğlu
5L. Dunk
6J. van Hecke
27M. Wieffer
30P. Groß
20J. Milner
22K. Mitoma
13J. Hinshelwood
25D. Gómez
18D. Welbeck
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
34T. Aina
8E. Anderson
6I. Sangaré
7C. Hudson-Odoi
10M. Gibbs-White
21O. Hutchinson
19Igor Jesus
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brighton
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brighton+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Nottingham Forest-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Brighton · Home
1.62points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-2
- Scored
- 1.54
- Conceded
- 1.08
Nottingham Forest · Away
1.08points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-7
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.54
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Brighton | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Aston Villa | L 0–1 AL 3–4 H | L 1–3 A |
| Crystal Palace | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Everton | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Fulham | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Manchester City | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Burnley | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| West Ham | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Arsenal | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Sunderland | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Leeds | W 3–0 H | L 1–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Manchester United | L 2–4 A | D 2–2 H |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Wolves | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Chelsea | W 3–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 31 of 78 · 1.19 per game | 27 of 78 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Brighton wins2 draws2 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game1.29 – 2.00
Over 2.557%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets43% · 29%
- 30 Nov 2025Nottingham Forest0–2Brighton
- 1 Feb 2025Nottingham Forest7–0Brighton
- 22 Sep 2024Brighton2–2Nottingham Forest
- 10 Mar 2024Brighton1–0Nottingham Forest
- 25 Nov 2023Nottingham Forest2–3Brighton
- 26 Apr 2023Nottingham Forest3–1Brighton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brighton | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.93 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.26 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.59 | 2.37 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 48% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 37% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 48% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Brighton | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.00 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brighton | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.74 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 10.30 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 16/27 | 81% 22/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 15/27 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 12/27 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.41 | 1.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 4.52 | 3.29 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 19/27 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 12/27 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Brighton | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.30 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 2.80 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andy Madley 131 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.34league 3.76
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+28%league 39%
Fouls23.0league 21.4
Penalties0.15league 0.21
Home wins46%league 42%
Brighton12 with this referee
Record5-4-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L3 Dec 25H · Aston Villa3–42
- W19 May 25H · Liverpool3–21
- D27 Dec 24H · Brentford0–00
- D3 Apr 24A · Brentford0–01
- L28 Feb 24A · Wolves0–12
Nottingham Forest5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W22 Nov 25A · Liverpool3–00
- D5 May 25A · Crystal Palace1–17
- D26 Feb 25H · Arsenal0–01
- L11 Feb 23A · Fulham0–21
- D21 Jan 23A · Bournemouth1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brighton27 games · scored 36 · conceded 34
3
3
0-15
4
6
16-30
5
8
31-45
4
4
46-60
8
5
61-75
12
8
76-90
Nottingham Forest27 games · scored 25 · conceded 39
5
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
10
31-45
7
7
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
13
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
